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Afghanistan Summary

The first stage of NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan which sees the transfer of power into the hands of Afghan forces is now complete.

The transition officially began on 17 July when 200 New Zealand troops handed over power to Afghan police in Bamiyan province. The second occurred on 19 July in Mehterlam, the capital of Laghman province. Shortly after the commencement of the handover ceremony rocket attacks hit Mehterlam, but no one was injured. The scheduled transition mostly involves places where insurgent activity is relatively low. The other transition locations are Panjshir, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Lashkar Gah and most of Kabul province. Most notable of the seven is Lashkar Gah, the capital of the volatile Helmand province where seven police officers were killed on 19 July. Apart from Lashkar Gah and Kabul province, the transfers are likely to be relatively smooth due to little Taliban activity in those regions.

On 20 July the NATO-led ISAF handed over power to Afghani forces in part of LashkarGah, the capital of the volatile Helmand province. This handover is symbolic more than realistic, as international troops handed over just half of the city centre, totalling just over one square mile of territory. International troops are on standby nearby, ready to provide armoured vehicles and air support as needed by Afghani soldiers and police officers. Lashkar Gah is the fourth region out of seven to be handed over from ISAF to Afghani hands in this first wave of NATO troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. The city presents a much different challenge to the power transition when compared to others. The province of Bamiyan, first to undergo a transfer of power, has a Hazara majority, a people antagonistic toward the Pashtun Taliban, and is distant enough from Taliban hotspots to experience relatively little insurgency. Lashkar Gah is seated in one of the most dangerous parts of Afghanistan that experiences high levels of Taliban violence and support. Hence the nature of the transfer of power from NATO is far different than in other parts, like Bamiyan. While NATO will maintain a significant presence throughout the city, the ceremony of transferring power is symbolic of the international community handing over the reins to the Afghans throughout Afghanistan. The Afghan police in Lashkar Gah have a better reputation for fighting the Taliban than in many other parts of Afghanistan, though corruption still poses a large problem. In practical terms, Lashkar Gah will remain secured by joint Afghani-NATO forces and development projects, including the million-dollar housing projects in the city, will continue as they have been. However, the Taliban will likely increase violence in Lashkar Gah as they have in the other areas set to be handed over to Afghan forces.

The last reporting period was notable for two high-profile assassinations. Ahmed Wali Karzai (AWK) was killed in an assassination in his home in Kandahar. Karzai, the brother of the president, was a notorious figure, who held great power through multiple connections, including to the CIA and the drug trade. The fact that he was killed by one of his security detail is telling, and means that insurgents (or his enemies of which he had many) can penetrate the security of even the most high-profile Afghan figures. Infiltration into the Afghan security forces is suspected to be rife, a problem which exposes high-profile figures to great risks. Most commentaries immediately accepted the insurgent claims that AWK was killed by the Taliban but in one sense it makes little sense, he was reviled by so many in the south he was doing a good job at turning people towards the insurgency. Likewise the killing of another aide of Karzai in Kabul could be more about his place in the reconciliation with the Taliban (and if this happens then some would lose out) rather than a desire by insurgents to remove Karzai’s inner circle. There is little certainty and rumours are rife around Kabul about the reason for the killings. With the US planning its withdrawal over the next few years, some fear a return to civil war to fill the power vacuum the current weak and insecure government will struggle to fill.

Funerals of high-profile, pro-government figures are frequently targeted by insurgents for both primary and secondary attacks due to the high number of high-value targets present. In this case, members of the Popalzai tribe would have proved an attractive target to insurgents (even if they did not actually kill AWK). High levels of security are no guarantee of stopping attacks of this nature; the fact that the head of the victim’s security detail was responsible for his killing should make this obvious. Infiltration into Afghan security forces by insurgent elements is a certainty. Perhaps not a case of infiltration but certainly illustrative of tensions between Afghan and foreign security forces, an NDS officer turned his weapon on a foreign soldier in the normally benign Panjshir province in the last reporting period. Following that, a British soldier was allegedly killed by his Afghan comrade in Helmand and looking further back an airforce officer turned his gun on Americans in KAIA earlier this year. At least 23 NATO soldiers and two civilian trainers have been killed by Afghan soldiers and police since 2009.

While these incidents have rightly drawn a large amount of media attention, the top commander of US forces in Afghanistan General David Petraeus on 9 July said that insurgent attacks against Afghan and NATO forces have started to decline. According to General Petraeus, for the first time, insurgent attacks have started to decline on an annual basis in five years. The military used the number of insurgent attacks as one of the key measures to assess the success or failure of the war in Afghanistan. General Petraeus has said the number of attacks declined in May and June by a few per cent compared to the same months in 2010 while pointing out that July is also moving in the same direction. It was earlier predicted that insurgent attacks would increase by 18 to 30 per cent this year. He is due to step down as the top commander in Afghanistan in mid-July and will take over as CIA chief in September. The comments come as President Obama is withdrawing the first 10,000 of the nearly 100,000 US forces in Afghanistan this year, followed by another 23,000 by the end of next summer. However, analysts have questioned whether the withdrawal of foreign troops will reverse the gains made against the Taliban. 25 July 2011

Afghan security forces on 24 July officially took security lead in northern Afghanistan's Panjshir province from foreign forces and put an end to the first phase of security transition in a ceremony attended by several high-ranking military officials, including defence and interior ministers. The defence minister General Abdul Rahim Wardak highlighted the need for capacity-building within Afghan security forces and emphasised on withdrawal of foreign forces from the country, saying presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan is historically not suitable for the country. The first phase of security handover process has been wrapped up as Afghan forces are expected to maintain security nationwide as part of the process that is to be completed by the end of 2014.

Reports have suggested that 14 Taliban members have been removed from an international sanctions list of the United Nations Security Council in a move believed to encourage the Taliban to join the Afghan peace process. Those removed from the list reportedly include Arsalan Rahmani Daulat, Habibullah Fawzi, Sayeedur Rahman Haqani and Faqir Mohammad, all members of Afghanistan's peace council. The Security Council has said that the decision sends a strong signal that the international community support the efforts of the Afghan government to engage reconciled Taliban in a political dialogue in order to achieve peace and security in Afghanistan. Before the decision, 137 members of the Taliban group were on the sanctions list. On 17 June the UN had split the sanctions list and separated the Taliban and al-Qaeda in order to encourage the Taliban to join the Afghan peace process. The move coincides with the NATO-led ISAF handing over security lead of seven areas to Afghan forces.

America's new defence chief Leon Panetta met with President Karzai in Kabul on 9 July to discuss security transition as well as training and equipment of Afghan forces. A key aspect of the defence secretary's visit has been how to withdraw the 33,000 forces that President Obama ordered to be pulled out by September 2012 without losing recent gains against the Taliban. The United States has backed the Afghan government's reconciliation process with the Taliban but there have been fears about a reversal of the gains against the Taliban especially at a time when the Taliban has intensified its attacks against Afghan and foreign forces as part of a spring offensive.

The UN’s top envoy in Afghanistan Staffan de Mistura has told the UN Security Council that while the security transition to Afghan security forces is on track, the international community must reassure Afghanistan that it will not be abandoned. The UN’s Special Representative in Afghanistan told the council that Afghanistan is "at a crossroads" between national sovereignty, continuing conflict and ongoing dialogue. The statement comes days after President Obama said the United States will withdraw 33,000 troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012 and the remaining 68,000 will gradually leave Afghanistan until the end of transition process in 2014, based on the conditions on the ground.

The last reporting period was blighted by several instances of civilian casualties. While consistently a contentious issue, the recent report released by the UN outlining an increase in deaths of this profile is likely to illicit a violent reaction in some quarters and the risk of civil unrest following instances of civilian casualties is high.

Central (Ghazni, Logar, Wardak, Bamyan, Parwan, Kapisa, Panjsher, Day Kundi)

Foreign forces have handed over security responsibilities in Mehtarlam, the eastern provincial capital of Laghman province to Afghan security forces. Earlier, on 17 July, Bamiyan province was handed over to Afghan forces marking the beginning of the transition process wherein security lead in seven areas will be transferred from international forces to Afghan troops leading to a full withdrawal by NATO-led ISAF by the end of 2014. The continuing spring offensive launched by the Taliban in April as well as high-profile killings such as that of the Afghan president's half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai are likely to reinforce doubts about Afghan security in the light of the drawdown. NATO also handed over control of the central Afghan province of Bamiyan to Afghan security forces in what was the first of seven areas to be passed to local forces under a plan announced by President Karzai in March. Bamiyan is one of the country's most secure provinces but it is a poor region, heavily reliant on foreign aid. The handover is seen as a critical step in a transition of power before foreign troops end combat operations in 2014. There are around 150,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan, nearly 100,000 of whom are from the US, battling a near ten-year Taliban-led insurgency.

Just before the handover, an agent for Afghanistan intelligence organisation in northern Panjshir province shot dead two ISAF troops and wounded a third today after an argument. The incident took place in Dara district when an agent for National Directorate of Security (NDS) stopped a NATO vehicle and following a verbal clash opened fire and shot dead two NATO troops. The NDS agent armed with a pistol was killed in crossfire.

Kabul

Pakistan's president Asif Ali Zardari visited Kabul to hold talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzai on 19 July during which the two leaders discussed Afghan stability and trade. While President Zardari's ostensible reason for the visit was to pay homage to the Afghan president's slain half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai, who was killed earlier by his bodyguard, the visit is likely to be intended to reverse the recent strain in bilateral ties, particularly after a spate of cross-border attacks, and also discuss Afghan reconciliation and the drawdown of foreign troops.

The Deputy Head of Afghan High Peace Council Mawlawi Attaullah Ludin said on 7 July that there have been indirect contacts with Taliban leader Mullah Omar and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar that could be fruitful in the reconciliation process. Mr Ludin said there have been contacts with people close to the Taliban leader and leader of the Hezb-e-Islami party but declined to provide further details about the contacts. However, the Taliban has dismissed reports of any contact between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

The statement only confirms that some contacts are focused on exchange of prisoners between the Taliban and the government. The High Peace Council had previously requested the UN Security Council to remove names of some of the Taliban leaders from a UN sanctions list to boost the reconciliation process. But the Taliban still stick to their preconditions, saying there won't be any peace deal between Afghan government and the Taliban until the full withdrawal of foreign forces from the country. In June, the then US defence secretary had also acknowledged the “very preliminary” nature of contact between the United States and Taliban leaders.

The chief of Afghanistan's Security Transition Programme Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai asserted at a security handover conference in Kabul on 29 June that the transition process was "irreversible". The conference was attended by high-ranking Afghan officials, including interior minister, spy chief, attorney general, governors, defence minister and many others from security organisations. The comments came as suicide bombers earlier stormed the heavily guarded Intercontinental Hotel in the heart of Kabul and killed 11 people including a Spanish citizen. Insurgents traded fire with Afghan security forces for five hours until NATO helicopters were called in to quell the firefight. The Intercontinental Hotel attack is likely to arouse doubts about the capabilities of the Afghan forces ahead of the security transition due to begin in July, with Kabul being one of the seven areas due to be handed over by foreign forces. US president Barack Obama has announced the phased reduction of US troops in Afghanistan with as many as 33,000 US forces to be pulled out of the country by the end of 2014. The new US ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker arrived in Kabul on 24 July to replace Karl Eikenberry and is expected to officially take his office on 25 July. Earlier this year Ryan Crocker, the former US ambassador to Iraq, was tapped by President Obama to succeed Karl Eikenberry. Ryan Crocker having previously served as the American ambassador to Pakistan is expected to be an influential official in future parleys between the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

While co-ordinated attacks on Kabul draw the majority of media attention, the threat of rocket attack remains ongoing. Elements of HIG (Hezb-e-Islami Golbuddin) have ordered cells to fire rockets, targeting bases and ANSF in various areas of the city. While threat warnings do not represent a true reflection of the day to day security issues that personnel face in Kabul city, one stands out in terms of the type of asymmetric attack that one may face in the city limits. According to one report, one insurgent group intended to place explosives inside ice cream carts to target first vice president Mohammad Qasem Fahim and second vice president Mohammad Karim Khalil ahead of visits to the Presidential Palace.

A group of Afghan civilians held a demonstration outside Kabul University on 14 July. The demonstration mainly involved a combination of students and members of the ‘Young Women for Change’ organisation. The demonstrators were protesting over the harassment and violence faced by women in Afghanistan. The body of an unidentified woman was found in PD-5 of KABUL City on 13 July. The demonstration was reported to have been peaceful at all times.

North (Badaghshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Samangan, Balkh, Sari Pul, Jawzjan)

An IED attack in Pul-e-Khomri city saw a bank branch targeted. Insurgents have carried out attacks on bank branches as ANSF collect their wages. This particular bomb was detonated from inside a civilian vehicle but the motive for the attack is not completely clear as no ANSF were due to collect their wages that day.

West (Faryab, Badghis, Ghor, Herat, Farah)

A top provincial government official in Badghis province was killed and seven others, including five police officers were wounded on 10 July after a roadside bomb hit his vehicle on the way to Qala-e-Naw. The same day, seven members of a bomb disposal team, who were kidnapped in Afghanistan's western Farah province, were found beheaded. The de-miners were abducted on 6 July in a district in western Farah province. The casualties took place as US defence secretary Leon Panetta, the new Pentagon chief succeeding Robert Gates, was discussing security transition to officials in Kabul on a surprise visit to Afghanistan.

Following the abduction of 32 NGO-employees in Bala Baluk on 6 July, an insurgent spokesman claimed that urgents inabducted 35 off-duty ANP officers from two villages in neighbouring Gulistan district on 13 July. A spokesman for the governor of Farah said that the abductees are all Afghan civilians with no connection tothe government, and as such it is unlikely that they will be harmed.

South (Nimroz, Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan)

At least five Taliban militants were killed in separate joint operations by Afghan and NATO forces in southern Afghanistan's Helmand province on 23 July in the districts of Sangin and Gereshk. Three other Taliban militants were captured during the operation in which Afghan forces, NATO troops and civilians suffered no casualties. Afghan and forces have increased military operations in the province recently to clear militants. It comes as foreign forces recently handed over security responsibility for Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand, to Afghan security forces. The NATO-led ISAF is expected to complete the Afghan security transition in 2014 when Afghans will be responsible for their own security.

Ahmad Wali Karzai, the controversial half-brother of Afghan president Hamid Karzai and a leading power-broker in South Afghanistan was assassinated in Kandahar on 12 July by his bodyguard. The Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack, calling it one of their top achievements in 10 years of war but the link is yet to be established. Critics have often accused Ahmad Wali Karzai of being a warlord mired in corruption, who was openly involved in the drugs trade and had a personal militia at his disposal even as his supporters saw him as a defender of Pashtun rights. The Afghan president has in the past repeatedly defended him, particularly after the presidential elections in 2009 when US officials believed Ahmad Wali Karzai helped rig the presidential elections in his brother's favour. As head of the Kandahar Provincial Council, he was a staunch ally of US and allied forces in Afghanistan – to the extent that they turned a blind eye to accusations he was involved in drug-trafficking. The commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), US general David Petraeus, condemned the assassination and said ISAF would work with the Afghan government to bring anyone involved to justice. In 2009 his motorcade came under heavy missile and machine gun attack on Kabul-Nangarhar highway, but he escaped unhurt. In 2008 when he was chairing a meeting in a government building a fuel tanker filled with explosives was detonated close by.

Kandahar saw an explosion at the Sarra Jamai mosque on 14 July during a service for the recently assassinated brother of President Karzai. The blast killed at least four people – including the head of Kandahar's clerical council – and injured at least 15 others. Attacks on the services associated with Ahmed Wali Karzai (AWK) were expected. Previous attacks on mosques prove that these areas are not immune to targeting. The previous day had seen an attack on the governor of Helmand while he was travelling to a service in Kabul. AWK's killers are not yet known, although the Taliban have unsurprisingly taken credit, claiming it to be one of their greatest successes in the last ten years. With no clear successor, instability is likely to follow his death as different power brokers jockey for position in Kandahar and its surrounding areas. NATO partners will also be seeking to correctly identify a suitable partner (in a practical rather than a moral sense) in order to avoid losing a foothold in the Taliban's heartlands.

A gunman was killed after he shot and wounded two policemen late on 10 July in Lashkar Gah, capital of restive Helmand province. The incident happened after the gunman who was dressed in uniform worn by guards of a charity organisation attacked a police patrol. The Taliban, which has taken responsibility for the attack, has since April sought to attack Afghan and NATO security personnel.

Four Afghan security men including a district intelligence officer from the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan's intelligence agency as well as 10 Taliban were killed during a gun battle on 10 July in the Gezab district of Uruzgan province, officials have said. Following the gun battle, security forces managed to capture a Taliban commander named Mulla Bismillah along with a cache of weapons and ammunition. Since April, the Taliban has mounted a spring offensive against ISAF and Afghan forces ahead of a planned withdrawal by NATO beginning in July, resulting in fierce clashes between the security forces and the Taliban.

At least five Taliban militants were killed in an Afghan police operation in the Nad Ali district of Afghanistan's southern Helmand province on 28 June, local officials said. The operation also resulted in the seizure of many weapons by Afghan police. Helmand is one of the seven provinces that Afghan forces will take over from foreign forces in July this year. Afghan and foreign forces have increased their operations to clear volatile areas of militants as foreign forces are to hand over security responsibilities to Afghan forces by the end of 2014. However, the Taliban has, since 30 April, launched a spring offensive against NATO and Afghan forces as well as government installations.

At least three NATO soldiers were killed in separate incident in Afghanistan on 9 July, Coalition forces said in a statement. Two NATO soldiers were killed in a bomb blast in southern Afghanistan, while the third was killed in an insurgent attack in the east, the statement said. Coalition forces did not provide the exact location of the incident and nationality of the soldiers. The incidents happened on 9 July as two NATO soldiers were shot dead by an Afghan National Security Directorate agent in northern Panjshir province. The deaths bring the number of foreign forces that have been killed to 293 so far this year in the Afghan violence. American forces are due to begin withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan in July at a time when growing casualties and rising costs of the deployment make the public wary of the Afghan operation.

East (Nangarhar, Laghman, Kunar, Nuristan)

At least 13 insurgents were killed on 17 July after NATO was called in for air support during a joint operation in eastern Nangarhar province, officials said. The firefight erupted on 16 July after an unknown number of militants hidden in a school opened fire towards provincial government institutions in Khewa district in Bodyalia area. After coming under attack, Afghan security forces along with international troops conducted an operation to remove militants from the empty school and clear the area. The operation that lasted for hours resulted in the school building being heavily bombarded by NATO air strikes. Two employees of the school were also among the dead in the incident while no casualties have been reported on the security forces side.

The Afghan Ministry of Interior Affairs said on 6 July that Afghan forces have launched a military operation in Kamdish district of Nuristan province to clear it of militants.The operation was launched in Kamdish district of Nuristan in which 20 Pakistani Taliban militants were killed. The operation continues in other parts of the district. Twelve Afghan police soldiers were also killed in the operation and five others were wounded, the ministry added. The operation comes as 23 police soldiers were killed and seven others were hurt after an unknown number of Pakistani Taliban militants attacked Kamdish district in eastern Nuristan province, the governor of Nuristan said on 5 July. Nuristan province, which shares the border with Pakistan, has seen Pakistan-based militants previously attack Afghan border police check posts in the province.

Militants have increased their activities in the eastern parts of Afghanistan recently, and Afghan and NATO forces have launched military operations in the country to clear volatile regions of militants as Afghan forces will take over security responsibilities of seven areas in July this year. Foreign forces are to hand over security responsibilities of seven areas to Afghan forces in the first phase and the process will be completed by the end of 2014 when all international troops will be withdrawn.

Afghan border police captured seven terrorists who disguised themselves as women in burqas (Islamic veil), in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province on 4 July. The Afghan border police commander in eastern Afghanistan has said five of them are Pakistani civilians and one of them had a suicide vest. Militants often use burqas to carry out their attacks and some insurgents disguised in burqas have previously been captured by Afghan security organisations.

The top Afghan commander of border forces in eastern Afghanistan, General Aminullah Amarkhil on 30 June resigned in protest of deadly missile attacks from Pakistan into Afghanistan, the purported "neglect" shown by the Afghan government and the international community. Earlier, Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security (NDS) accused Pakistan of launching missiles into Afghan soil and said more than 400 missiles have landed in the country's Kunar and Nangarhar provinces over the past two weeks. In response to the attacks, the Afghan Defence Ministry had said Afghan national army was ready to retaliate against the attacks, but the government should authorise it. More than 60 people have been reported to have been killed, and many others have been reported injured and displaced. On 29 June, for the second time Afghan president Hamid Karzai called on the Pakistani government to halt its missile attacks into Afghan territory. But Pakistan denies firing missiles into Afghanistan saying its army is not involved in the attacks. In the recent past, Islamabad and Kabul have had strained ties and though high-level visits by leaders from both countries have taken place, the latest incident is likely to re-ignite tensions between the two neighbours.

Armed men killed five labourers on the outskirts of Nushki town, some 170km west of Quetta when they were working at an under-construction mosque, on 23 July. The outlawed Baloch Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attack. The Baloch Liberation Army has in the past carried out similar attacks to undermine the writ of the Pakistani state in its efforts to establish an independent state of Balochistan. Pakistan has in the past accused arch-rival India of using its consulates in Afghanistan, particularly at Herat and Jaladabad to help the Balochs to mount a secessionist movement through money and arms, a charge India denies.

South East (Paktya, Khost, Paktika)

Afghan and NATO-led forces during a cleanup operation on 22 July killed over 50 militants in Paktika province. The operation, according to the statement, was aimed at the Haqqani network, a militant group operating in Afghanistan's eastern regions and the capital city Kabul. Foreign forces have completed the first phase of the security transition handing over security lead in seven areas including Kabul to Afghan forces. Critics have expressed concerns over the accelerated nature of the drawdown of foreign troops and over the capabilities of the Afghan forces.

Military officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan met on 7 July in Peshawar, along with US officials, to discuss a spike in tensions on their lawless border. To soothe tensions, Pakistan has, besides proposing a hotline between Pakistan and Afghan security forces, also proposed frequent border flag meetings between local commanders, as well as interaction between tribal elders of villages on each side of the border. In Kabul, around 200 Afghans protested last week against Pakistani rocket attacks that officials said had killed dozens of people. Afghanistan has also long complained of Pakistan-based militants launching attacks on its soil. While there are Taliban strongholds on both sides of the border, Afghan and US officials want Pakistan to do more to eradicate militant sanctuaries in its semi-autonomous tribal belt. Afghan president Hamid Karzai demanded an end to the attacks when he met the head of Pakistan’s army, General Ashfaq Kayani, during a recent visit to Pakistan.

President Karzai said on 5 July that his country's security forces will not respond with military force to weeks of cross-border shelling from Pakistan even as the Afghan parliament called on him to sever ties with Islamabad over the issue. Hundreds of rockets have hit Afghanistan since early June, officials say, and killed dozens of civilians, infuriating Afghans with a top Afghan police general earlier offering his resignation over the government’s lack of response to the attacks, and at least two demonstrations taking place. The Interior Ministry says nearly 800 rockets have been fired since early June, killing 12 women and girls and 30 men. While Pakistan has rejected Afghan allegations of large scale cross-border shelling, the shelling by Pakistan in pursuit of militants and the collateral damage accruing out of it is likely to greatly damage Islamabad's already tenuous ties with Kabul. Media reports have suggested that the two countries have decided to establish a military hotline to resolve cross-border issues.

Two mortar shells fired from across the border in Afghanistan slammed into a Pakistani house on 12 July, killing at least two women and wounding 12 other people near the town of Khar in the restive Bajaur tribal district. It was the latest in a series of deadly cross-border incidents that have raised tensions between the neighbouring countries, but it was not immediately clear who fired the shells. Hundreds of Afghans took to the streets in the eastern town of Jalalabad on 11 July chanting “death to Pakistani invaders” to protest against cross-border attacks that they claim have killed dozens of people. In recent weeks tensions have sharply risen on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, which villagers say have been bombarded with hundreds of rocket attacks. Pakistan says its security forces may have fired a few accidental rounds into Afghanistan while pursuing militants. It also says that insurgents from Afghanistan have crossed the border to attack security checkpoints. The United States is reported to have assured Pakistan that despite the suspension of US$800 million in military aid, civilian assistance and financing of large projects in Pakistan will continue. This was conveyed to Pakistan's prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani by the country's finance minister Abdul Hafeez Sheikh who got the assurance from US deputy secretary of state Thomas Nides on 16 July. There were fears that suspension of US assistance could affect the bailout package Pakistan is receiving from the International Monetary Fund. However, while concrete assurances from the US for continuation of civilian assistance is likely to annul such fears, some analysts believe that the government would have to divert more civilian resources for the armed forces if the US does not review its decision on military aid. The suspension of the aid led to the almost immediate cut of Frontier Corps (FC) stationed in the tribal regions of Pakistan; Pakistan claimed it could no longer afford to pay them. This is likely to have a negative effect on both the US and Pakistan. The US will find Pakistani militant groups have a freer sphere of movement potentially impacting their operations in eastern Afghanistan while Pakistan will fear the Tehreek-e-Taliban gaining the ascendancy in certain areas, as evidenced by the killing of some 16 FC solders in a recently released video. Some press reports have indicated that co-operation between the CIA and the ISI has resumed after a period of stress, as outlined in previous AKE Analytical Briefings, but civilian assistance will not be enough in the short term and Pakistan is likely to demand more military assistance, and will leverage its increasing friendship with China as a way to get this.

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