Share

AKE Afghanistan Report

Afghanistan Summary

Today marks the tenth anniversary of the US invasion of Afghanistan and the security landscape of the country is as volatile as it has been in a decade.

According to a UN report, violence has increased in Afghanistan at a rate of nearly 40 per cent, year on year. This differs from official ISAF figures, who use a different measuring stick to the UN. Whatever the interpretation of what constitutes a security event, the majority of attacks continue to involve gunfights and attacks using improvised bombs. The epicentre of the conflict remains around Kandahar and in the south, east and south-east regions. In real terms some of these areas have seen fighting levels drop, most likely due to increased foreign troop numbers. The increase in reported figures reveals an increase of insurgent activity in areas which previously had seen lower levels. Pressure from ISAF forces on mid-level commandersmay have contributed to attacks of a more asymmetric nature.

There has been a sevenfold increase in the use of roadside and remote-controlled mines against foreign troops in Afghanistan, the Pentagon's Joint IED Defeat Organisation (JIEDDO) has said. From April to June, 3,485 IEDs exploded or were found in the war-ravaged country, according to JIEDDO, which indicates a 14 per cent increase over the same period last year. The volatile southern province of Helmand, the spiritual home of the Taliban, is the worst affected, along with Kandahar province and the country's east along the border with Pakistan. Infantry forces are particularly more vulnerable to IED attacks. Use of roadside bombs against them increased 59 per cent in the spring. Nearly 1,900 weapons caches were discovered in the spring, three times more than in 2010, according to JIEDDO figures. In 2010, IEDs were responsible for 60 per cent of coalition deaths, even if only one in 10 bombs leads to casualties. As of August 1, 738 US soldiers had been killed and 7,857 wounded by IEDs since the beginning of combat in 2001, according to the Pentagon.

After a string of high profile “spectacular” attacks and assassinations of key figures in the peace and reconciliation process with the Taliban that long drawn out affair seems to have been stalled. President Karzai himself recently said that he would cease reconciliation efforts and would look to Pakistan, despite calls from the NDS that Prof Burhanuddin Rabbani, former Chairman of the Afghan High Peace Council was killed by a militant from Pakistan although Pakistan insists an Afghan national Hamidullah Akundzadeh master-minded the assassination. One might note from the length of the Kabul section (where political developments usually fall) that the current political malaise has not been resolved.

AKE released its quarterly kidnap report in the last reporting period. The Afghanistan section is below, Contact intel@akegroup.com for more on this report.

The rate of kidnaps of foreigners actually fell in the last quarter but that was due to their being a lower number of kidnaps of construction and road builders who are typically taken in larger groups. Along with several releases after months in captivity, the killing of two Germans taken in Salang, Parwan in late August show the dangers of travelling independently in Afghanistan. Other than ANSF (officials and police are frequently targeted) the most vulnerable groups of foreigners taken remain road construction workers, engineers and personnel involved in government projects backed by the Karzai government or NATO. Two French journalists Hervé Ghesquière and Stéphane Taponier who were kidnapped in Kapisa in December 2009 were released after around 18 months in captivity. It is likely that a ransom was paid to ensure their release, despite denials by the French government. A video of the Canadian national kidnapped in Ghazni earlier this year remains the update on his situation in the public domain. An American civil engineer was found dead in Kabul's district 12, although it is unclear whether he was kidnapped. After seven-and-a-half months of captivity, five Bangladeshi were released from captivity in August. Two were released two days after their abduction on 17 December but the others had been in captivity for some time. Their employers, a South Korean construction company, “engaged local senior citizens” to negotiate their freedom. Four Turkish engineers were also released having been abducted in the volatile province of Khost, rated by AKE as among Afghanistan’s most dangerous provinces. 7 October 2011

Projections

In terms of development of the ANA, currently only two Afghan National Army battalions are at this point rated independent of their ISAF mentors, and even they rely on American logistics support. Foreign forces are now well into the security transition to Afghan security forces in the country and it will be completed by the end of 2014. Afghan forces have taken security responsibilities of seven areas in the first phase as planned. ISAF had suggested that new regions would be nominated for the second phase of security hand over process in September or October 2011. The first phase of security transition process was completed in July with Afghan security forces taking the lead in seven relatively peaceful regions. ISAF has cited the porous Afghan-Pakistan border as a challenge in preventing insurgents from crossing in and out. Despite a dramatic surge in violence including the killing of prominent Afghan functionaries in recent weeks, international troops had declared the first phase of the handover process successful with prominent stakeholders such as the governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States staking their hopes on reconciliation talks with the Taliban.

Numerous commentators have expressed concerns about Afghan security after foreign forces pull out of Afghanistan in 2014. Security responsibilities of seven relatively-calm regions were transferred to Afghan security forces recently but the NGO has warned that serious security challenges coupled with endemic issues like corruption in the Hamid Karzai administration brings doubts about a successful completion of the security transition due to be completed at the end of 2014. The International Crisis Group has criticised the Afghan government’s peace efforts with the Taliban calling for more substantive talks. The Afghan government’s reconciliation efforts has seen the removal of a number of Taliban leaders from a UN sanctions list and has been cautiously welcomed by the United States, whose defence secretary had alluded to a possible political role for the Taliban in Afghanistan’s future. However, the group which mounted a spring offensive against Afghan and NATO forces has continued to mount devastating attacks on military and civilian targets raising doubts about the peace talks’ efficacy.

Central (Ghazni, Logar, Wardak, Bamyan, Parwan, Kapisa, Panjsher, Day Kundi)

Two German hikers who went missing near the Salang pass were found dead two days later. It is unclear how they died. They travelled to an area foreigners are known to go hiking and occasionally skiing. The area is not controlled by insurgents but criminal gangs operate countrywide. According to police reports their bodies were found in cloth sacks, suggesting they may have been victims of a crime, with a botched kidnapping being one explanation.

Six suicide bombers attacked on Parwan government building in northern Afghanistan on 14 August killing twenty two people including six Afghan policeman while injuring 34 others. Most of the victims of the attack were government employees. Five other suicide bombers were killed in clashes with Afghan security force. The attack took place while the governor of Parwan held a security meeting. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. While the governor escaped unhurt, the attack came amid a spate of high-profile attacks and assassinations including that of Ahmed Wali Karzai, an influential personality in southern Afghanistan and half-brother of President Hamid Karzai. The intensification of Taliban violence is likely to raise questions about the efficacy of the Afghan government's reconciliation talks with the Taliban which is aimed at integrating the group into Afghanistan's mainstream.

30 US Navy SEALs were killed in a helicopter crash in Dara district of Wardak province. Militants' activities have increased in recent months as the first phase of the security transition from foreign forces to Afghan security forces ended in seven areas of the country. According to reports the second phase of security transition will begin in September 2011.

Kabul

In addition to the attack on Rabbani, AKE recently issued a risk advisory for Kabul after a complex attack in the city, one of three since the last report. Fighting centred around the Abdul Haq Square and US embassy area, with RPGs and small arms fire being reported. Suicide tactics may also be used. Personnel should minimise movements in the area at present, while those responsible for property security are advised to review their measures in light of the ongoing risk of co-ordinated and potentially mass-casualty terrorist attacks against high profile targets in the city.

The reporting period also saw a major attack on a British interest in Kabul. While the significance of the date is undeniable, falling 92 years after Afghanistan gained independence from the British, the fact that the building was relatively poorly protected. Attacks on “softer” targets are likely in future, but more to gain media attention than due to strategic significance. Complex attacks of this nature are usually attributed to the Haqqani network. Interestingly, the Pakistani army has all but publically admitted that it has open channels in some form to the group.

The leader of one of the largest insurgent/criminal groups in Afghanistan has distanced himself from the Pakistani intelligence services after senior American military figures publically accused Pakistan of fostering links with the group and oblique involvement in recent high profile attacks in Kabul. Siruj Haqqani claimed Rabbani was not killed on his orders. The removal of Rabbani has slowed the chances of negotiation with insurgent groups he was talking to for several months. The Afghan Intelligence service, the NDS, has claimed the attacked was planned "outside of Afghanistan", which usually means Pakistan when quoted in this way. Karzai has also recently spoken of the need to engage not the Taliban, but Pakistan in an effort to pursue peace.

Two people were killed and one wounded in a shooting incident at the end of September at an annex of the US Embassy in Kabul.

Apart from spectacular attacks, there are frequent protests and occasional clashes in and around the capital. These rarely result in deaths but should be avoided if possible. The most recent protests have seen Afghans taking to the streets and voicing their discontent at the role Pakistan is playing in their country. Three people were killed and three others were wounded on 9 August after residents of Merwais town clashed with Kuchi nomads over disputed lands in the Beni Esar area of Kabul.

The United Nations is seeking to push a plan aimed at bringing an end to the current chaos between the legislative and executive branches in Afghanistan and to avoid the country sinking into a constitutional crisis with reports suggesting that the plan involves the UN pressing the Independent Election Commission (IEC) to unseat 17 lawmakers. Media reports cited an unnamed American official as saying that the United States will not support the UN plan but will support whatever the IEC decides. The development comes after Afghan President Hamid Karzai ordered the formation of a special tribunal to investigate fraud allegations in the elections, weeks after the final results of parliamentary elections announced by the IEC. The move of President Karzai was described as a manoeuvre to insert his supporters into the parliament, which was swept by opposition lawmakers in last September's parliamentary elections. After the completion of its probe, the special tribunal ruled that 62 lawmakers should be unseated, but IEC chairman Fazl Ahmad Manawi refused to recognise the tribunal's authority. Last week President Karzai dissolved the special tribunal and assigned the IEC to have the final say about the election impasse. It is unlikely that the UN plan if implemented would be left without backlash.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani held talks with the King of Saudi Arabia, Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud on 8 August during which he is reported to have reiterated Pakistan's interest in selling military equipment, including tanks and armored vehicles. Mr. Gilani is also reported to have briefed the Saudi King on Pakistan's economic conditions. Saudi Arabia, one of Pakistan's closest allies has in the past been one of Islamabad's biggest benefactors and the Pakistani leader reportedly made a request to Saudi officials to extend the deferred oil payment facility to Pakistan to overcome its budgetary constraints. More importantly, the two countries discussed the situation in Afghanistan in the wake of an anticipated US pullout from the region and reconciliation talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were the two countries besides the United Arab Emirates to have backed the former Taliban regime against the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance.

North (Badaghshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Samangan, Balkh, Sari Pul, Jawzjan)

The security situation in the north remains far less violent than the central region in terms of pure numbers of incidents but Kunduz and Baghlan continue to see regular violence. Insurgents have also proved capable of carrying out assassinations of high profile figures. In one such incident suspected Taliban militants killed the counter-terrorism chief of Khanabad District of northern Kunduz Province on 19 September. Gul Mohammad and his bodyguard were shot while riding a motorbike a fairly common tactic.

West (Faryab, Badghis, Ghor, Herat, Farah)

A media report has cited General Abdul Rahigh-ranking police official in southern Afghanistan as having said that Iran and Pakistan support the Taliban insurgents and provoke violence in the country besides providing safe havens to militants. Ninety per cent of the Taliban leaders are living in safe havens in Pakistan and the remaining ten per cent are staying in Iran, General Razeq said. General Razeq was in charge of border forces in border regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan for several years. Southern regions of the country, in particular Kandahar and Helmand, have long been the scene of some of the deadliest attacks by the Taliban and there is still little hope that violence will lessen in southern parts. Historically, during the Taliban regime - Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were the strongest backers of the Pashtun-dominated Taliban while Iran, Russia and India backed the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance.

South (Nimroz, Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan)

NATO-led forces in Afghanistan have launched an investigation into how a BBC journalist was killed in the southern province of Uruzgan last week. The BBC’s Pashto service reporter Ahmed Omed Khpulwak was one of at least 19 people, including 12 children, killed during a suicide bomb attack and gun battle. It was initially reported that the journalist was killed by insurgents but the BBC asked for the inquiry when conflicting reports later emerged as to who had fired the fatal shots. The Taliban have said they carried out the attacks but denied having killed the reporter. Instead, they accused government forces of having shot him as they fought to regain control of the area.

East (Nangarhar, Laghman, Kunar, Nuristan)

Afghan local officials on 26 July said that militants attacked on Nangarhar airport on 25 July which followed a clash with Afghan forces. The attack took place at 2000 local time in Behsood district of Nangarhar province in which two civilians, one Afghan National Army soldier and one Afghan policeman were wounded. Meanwhile, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack and said that foreign and Afghan forces have suffered casualties in the attack.This is the third attack on Nangarhar airport in a year. Militants have suffered heavy casualties in their past attempts to attack Nangarhar airport. Violence has increased in some parts of the country recently as insurgents have intensified their activities often targeting government sites as well as Afghan and foreign forces as part of a spring offensive.

US ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker said the Afghanistan government should decide whether the Taliban should be invited for the second Bonn conference later this year. Earlier he had said that there is no space for the Taliban to take part in the forthcoming Bonn conference. He stressed that there will be one single Afghan delegation at the conference and it was upto the Afghanistan government whether it wanted to include the Taliban as part of that delegation. He also said the United States will continue to work with Pakistan to make sure the Taliban is brought under control. Pakistan is believed to be a key player in Afghan peace efforts and officials in Islamabad have long insisted that they want to be part of the solution, not the problem. Kabul and the international community constantly criticise Pakistan for allowing insurgents and al-Qaeda network to use its soil against its neighbours.

Mortars fired from Afghanistan struck a house in Pakistan’s South Waziristan tribal region on the Afghan border, killing a child and wounding two others. The house struck in the attack was situated in South Waziristan’s Angoor Adda area. Subsequently, Pakistan reportedly lodged a protest with the Afghan National Army and the International Security Assistance Force. The cross-border attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan has been a source of tension between the two nations and has figured in high-level talks between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the entire spectrum of the Pakistani military and political leadership. The latest attack is likely to re-ignite tensions between Kabul and Islamabad.

South East (Paktya, Khost, Paktika)

Relevant to Afghanistan due to the wider geopolitics of the region, during the last reportng period Pakistan denied report that China was given access to the wreckage of the US stealth helicopter that crashed during the Bin Laden raid in the military garrison town of Abbottabad on 2 May. The papers which cited unnamed Pakistani officials claimed that the Chinese were allowed to take pictures of the crashed chopper as well as take samples of its special ‘skin’ that helped the American navy SEALs evade Pakistani radars. During the raid, one of two modified Blackhawk helicopters, believed to have unknown stealth capability, malfunctioned and crashed, forcing the commandos to abandon it. Shortly after the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden, Pakistan hinted that it might give China access to the downed chopper, given its fury over the raid, which it considered as a grievous violation of its sovereignty. The revelation, if confirmed, is likely to further shake the US-Pakistan relationship, which has improved only slightly after hitting its lowest point in decades following the raid.

AKE can provide you with intelligence, training and a range of security services. For further details please email: intel@akegroup.com or telephone: +44 (0) 20 7816 5454

141 views