Share

AKE Lowers Libya Risk Rating

LONDON – Risk consultancy firm AKE has lowered the security risk rating for Libya following the fall of Sirte and Bani Walid. These were the last two remaining cities under the control of Gaddafi loyalists.

The security situation in most of the country is assessed to be positive by AKE sources on the ground, although there remain a number of risks to personnel.

In major cities, particularly Tripoli and Benghazi, personnel should be aware of celebratory gunfire, with NTC fighters and civilians with little training or regard for weapon safety discharging firearms into the air. As a result there is a heightened risk of accidental discharge of weapons.

There is also a risk posed by remaining Gaddafi loyalist elements, although the possibility of a full insurgency taking root is significantly reduced following the death of the former leader.

The new rating on AKE's 1-100 scale is 55, which denotes that there is still a risk of guerrilla and terrorist tactics in the country. It is still high, amid uncertainty over the ability of the National Transitional Council (NTC) to maintain unity and ensure security during the transition period. However, it is still an improvement from the ratings of 63 and 64 which it has been assigned since March, and may be lowered further over the coming days.

At 55 Libya is still the most dangerous country in the world according to AKE. Afghanistan is ranked at 53 in comparison. However, AKE’s Libya specialist Alan Fraser believes the rating may be revised further downwards over the coming days and there are grounds for cautious optimism for the country over the coming months.

111 views