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Libya Faces post-Gaddafi Era

LONDON – The death of Gaddafi and the liberation of Sirte means that the National Transitional Council (NTC) will now have to focus its attention on rebuilding the economy and appeasing the various competing demands for influence within Libyan society.

This is a difficult task which may now become more complicated.

Gaddafi was a unifying figure amongst the opposition, with many Libyan groups laying aside their differences in order to pursue him. His death could lead to a re-emergence of social divisions around the country.

The fall of the last remaining Gaddafi-held city, and the capture of Gaddafi himself effectively ends the eight-month conflict, and should allow the NTC to close a chapter in the liberation of the country and concentrate on the task of political transition and reconstruction.

This may well prove to be the hardest part. It will require the country’s new political leaders to quickly achieve the formation of an interim government that can deal with foreign companies and partners.

Another task will be to return oil production to pre-conflict levels, while also maintaining security in the face of possible attacks by remaining Gaddafi loyalists. Ensuring security and stability will be vital in encouraging foreign investors to return.

The death of Gaddafi, as opposed to his capture, means the Libyan people and the international community will be spared a costly and potentially destabilising drawn-out trial.

Although the formation of a loyalist insurgency will be less of a concern following his death, there are likely to be some loyalist elements who remain intent on seeking revenge. Further sporadic incidents of violence should therefore be expected and personnel are advised to continue exercising caution for the time being.

After the celebrations have died down, the focus will have to move from the hardships of the Gaddafi era to building a unified and prosperous country. A fact of which the NTC appear to be well aware.

Amid the changing situation AKE is reviewing the security risk rating for Libya. It is currently ranked at 64 on AKE's 1-100 scale and may be altered over the coming hours and days.

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