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your vote counts - use it

Before we know it the General Election will be upon us. The consensus at the time of writing seems to be that the date will be May 6th, but only Gordon Brown really knows. Usually there is a four to six week campaigning period, which means that from early April we will be weathering the full force of the electioneering from the political parties.

What are the big issues of the day, and how will they play out with the electorate in our region?

Is it time for a change?

The working assumption of political commentators to date has been that Gordon Brown is an electoral liability; that the Labour government is suffering from fatigue after over 12 years in power; and that the Tories under David Cameron should win the election if they can avoid too many own goals. This view is too London-centric, and in Scotland ignores the obvious, that Labour lost control at Holyrood in 2007 and that the Tories only have one MP in Scotland. As a result there may be less of an appetite for change. Who knows how the electorate’s experience of Holyrood under the SNP will affect a UK general election voting on the performance of a UK Labour government? We’ll have to wait and see. My money is on having a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest single party.

How will the recession affect voting?

To date England has been hit harder than Scotland by the recession which will probably firm up the Tory vote. Unemployment has hit the younger (who tend to be less likely to vote) harder, so any impact will be softened. A large public sector in Scotland may have eased economic effects going in, but will hamper recovery coming out of recession. It is difficult to call how this will affect voting patterns

What about the public sector deficit?

A competition to see who can propose the deepest cuts seems to have been avoided. The real danger is that short term cuts without reform (all pain, no gain) will impact on medium term recovery and longer-term infrastructure investment. That would be a double-whammy that the country should try to avoid.

What are the other issues?

Stir in to the mix the Iraq and Afghan engagements which will stay in the news; the expected further job losses (as unemployment lags the economy); unexpected events – a terrorist atrocity or a return of swine flu; not to mention the continued expenses scandal hanging around like a bad smell; and you have an election period ripe for negative campaigning. That should cheer us all up.

At AGCC, we regard the general election as an opportunity. No, I’m serious. An opportunity to remind all politicians that wealth is created by business – all wealth. An opportunity to point out to candidates that the red-tape burdens in the pipeline over the next few years (based on BCC research) add up to a staggering additional burden of £26b on business. A chance to remind them that infrastructure investment is key to avoiding future problems.

We are developing a ‘manifesto for business’ which will form the basis of the lobbying that we intend to do during the election campaign. This will be discussed and agreed at the next Policy Council meeting of the Chamber. We have also pencilled in a ‘Hustings’ Business Breakfast for April 16th, assuming that the election will be in May. Make a note in your diary.

Can we urge you to make business’ views known, either through the Chamber or direct. This will be an important election for your future.

On the day itself, why not follow the advice of one of our American cousins – vote early and vote often.