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Mumbai Bombings Harm Relations

The latest Mumbai bombings were likely carried out by a Muslim terrorist group with domestic Indian origins.

According to security and intelligence firm AKE, the attacks will increase scrutiny of India’s 120 million Muslim community and could harm already fragile inter-communal relations. AKE also believes that yesterday’s attacks will set back India-Pakistan ties. It is very likely that there will be an enquiry into Islamabad’s possible involvement in the incident.

AKE’s Head of Intelligence, Fraser Bomford says: “Compared to Mumbai in 2008, the style of the latest attacks, while co-ordinated, was relatively amateurish. This suggests that it was carried out by one of the many Kashmiri-based militant groups involved in extensive violence over the last ten years. One group, the Indian Mujahideen has been strongly linked. They carry out low-level attacks on a regular basis in Jammu and Kashmir and their involvement could turn scrutiny on to the Indian Muslim population. Long-standing links between Kashmiri groups and elements in Pakistan could also lead to a rise in suspicion towards India’s neighbour.”

Indian investigations into the blasts found that while seven explosive devices were used, only three actually detonated. They were wrapped in cloth bags and tiffin boxes and were a far cry from the co-ordinated attacks of November 2008 which involved suicide bombers, firearms and grenades.

Tensions between India and Pakistan have remained strained since the 2008 attacks, despite a degree of rapprochement in 2011. The latest incident would suggest that further improvements are still a long way away. Bomford says “the Pakistani intelligence services are likely to be accused of involvement, but this does not mean the attack will lead to a serious escalation of hostilities or immediate border skirmishes. The timing of the attack is likely to coincide with upcoming talks in New Delhi on 26-27 July and they could be an effort by militants to derail them. If any degree of sponsorship by Pakistani intelligence or government sources is discovered at a later date it will put severe pressure on diplomatic relations”.

India is expected to be in a state of high alert for other potential strikes over the coming days. In an advisory issued by AKE intelligence shortly after the bombings, companies and organisations are recommended to stay in regular contact with employees living and working in urban parts of the country, particularly Mumbai and New Delhi. Ensure that employees have sufficient insurance cover and proper travel safety training and be prepared for further possible attacks.

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