Shaken not stirred - September 2010Borrowing from the lyrics of Elvis, our economy remains All Shook Up. The Scottish Chambers of Commerce has just published our Business Survey for the second quarter of the year. The survey, which gathers data from Chambers across the network including this one, is the largest and most comprehensive regular survey of the Scottish business community and as such is considered a good indication of business performance across all sectors.
Based on information gathered in June, this survey has thrown up a complex and seemingly contradictory set of results reflecting a modest growth in manufacturing, some slight signs of improvement in construction, weak consumer confidence in retail and a seasonal upturn in tourism.
While evidence gathering for the third quarter survey will begin later this month and may throw up a different tale, the predictions of the Q2 survey is that growth in manufacturing and improvement in construction is expected to weaken in the third quarter, retail spending is expected to remain flat and the overseas influence and business demand will remain overall weak.
The biggest unknown in all of this at the moment is the impact which significant reductions in public expenditure will have on the wider economy and it’s unclear as yet just how Scottish firms are beginning to factor that into their planning. One thing which does seem evident though is that these reductions will increasingly influence activity and business confidence – and this combined with the ongoing recovery from recession will inevitably mean of continuation of difficult conditions for many.
The elusive move to a more sustained recovery in the Scottish economy looks like it will continue to remain just that - elusive - with the caveat that the current signs of improvement may have to contend with rising cost pressures, increased marketing uncertainty and of course a reduced public sector capital and operating budget.
The figures and analysis for our region, broadly follow the national trends with some slight variations in percentages.
The silver lining in our particular cloud however seems to be in manufacturing with 78% of respondents saying that optimism is the same as three months ago and 22% saying it is better that three months ago. Looking back to a year ago, 56% of respondents said that optimism was the same but an encouraging 44% indicating that optimism was better than it was 12 months ago. That is markedly better than the national return which had 14% of respondents saying that optimism was worse than three months ago and 20% saying it was worse than a year ago.
But to add to the mix – this is where the stirred comes in - we shouldn’t forget too that in amongst all the clouds, there are quite a few shining stars – and we’ll be celebrating the success of 35 examples of those when we hold our Northern Star Business Awards later this month.
In what has been a challenging year across all sectors, firms in Aberdeen City and Shire do continue to flourish and grow and the finalists shortlisted for this year’s awards ceremony showed just how much business confidence and success there is out there.
BCC Pension Response
The British Chambers of Commerce has submitted a response to the Government’s Review of 2012 Pension Reforms.
The BCC estimates that the reforms will cost business £4.8bn (net) per year with a £200m one-off costs in the first year. The Chamber’s main contention is that while its understands and supports the drive to boost private pension savings, it does not believe that enough consideration has been given to the costs these reforms will place on small firms, not their potential impact on job creation.
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