The North-east of Scotland has always been resilient. We’ve adapted before, we’ve diversified, and we’ve found ways forward when circumstances have been far from straightforward. But there’s no denying that the current economic landscape feels particularly challenging.
The UK Government’s decision in the November 2025 Budget to maintain the windfall tax on the oil and gas sector until 2030, combined with continued consolidation across the industry, has created uncertainty for businesses across the region, a situation now compounded by oil prices plummeting to a near five-year low.
Research from Robert Gordon University and Offshore Energies UK confirms that around 1,000 jobs per month are currently being lost in the oil and gas sector, with this rate expected to continue without intervention. The Fraser of Allander Institute has warned that the North-east of Scotland risks losing around £1billion, roughly 5% of the regional economy, if the current decline in energy investment continues.
This has a lasting effect on the entire supply chain and the wider regional economy.
At Hall Morrice, we work alongside North-east businesses every day. We see the pressure points and the tough decisions leaders face. That’s why we’ve outlined four practical steps to help you take control and build financial resilience, whatever 2026 brings.
1. Understanding your new financial reality
One of the biggest risks we see in uncertain times is businesses relying too heavily on headline profit figures. However, businesses can be profitable on paper and still run out of cash.
That’s why a 13-week rolling cash flow forecast will provide visibility, early warning, and time to act. A robust forecast should include:
- Expected receipts by customer and timing
- All disbursements e.g. wages, tax, suppliers, debt repayments
- A weekly rolling update
Alongside this, scenario planning is critical. Ask the uncomfortable questions now, while you still have choices. What happens if a key customer pays 30 days late? What if two do? What if a contract isn’t renewed?
2. Cost management
Cost control done well creates stability and protects long-term capability.
For SMEs, this starts with a clear-eyed review of overheads. Subscription costs often creep up unnoticed and should be challenged. Now is also the time to speak to suppliers about better terms or extended payment periods. Small changes can have a meaningful impact on cash flow.
Technology also plays a role. Automating invoicing, approvals and expense tracking reduces errors, speeds up processes and frees up valuable management time.
Larger and PE-backed businesses may need a more structured approach, including zero-based budgeting, strategic sourcing and a strong focus on working capital optimisation.
3. Protecting cash across the supply chain
With job losses continuing at pace, protecting cash has become a priority across the region. Proactive debtor management, prompt invoicing and consistent collections processes are essential. In some cases, early payment incentives can be more cost-effective than prolonged chasing.
For stock-holding businesses, regular inventory reviews are equally important. Reducing slow-moving or obsolete stock can release cash and improve flexibility at a critical time.
4. The path forward
While the challenges are real, so are the opportunities. We’re seeing increased demand for the fractional CFO model, giving SMEs access to senior financial expertise without the cost of a full-time hire. Equally, financial data is more important than ever. Cloud accounting platforms and integrated reporting tools offer clarity and confidence with stats in real time.
The North-east has weathered storms before. The businesses that emerge strongest are those that act early, plan realistically and seek the right support.
Don’t wait for the storm to hit. The business advisory team at Hall Morrice work alongside many SMEs, especially those without an in-house finance team, to deliver year-round support that can help businesses remain profitable. By cleansing and analysing data early, we streamline year-end processes and provide timely insights that drive stronger financial performance, freeing up your time to focus on your passions. Get in touch with the team at accounts@hall-morrice.co.uk