The findings of this Energy Transition 42 report present a stark but timely reminder of the crossroads at which our energy sector now stands.
For decades, this basin has powered the UK, anchored our energy security, and sustained thousands of highly skilled jobs. The pace and scale of change facing the sector today is unprecedented – and this survey captures that reality with clarity.
Perhaps the most striking message from industry is the crisis of confidence in the UK Continental Shelf. Revenue expectations have fallen to historic lows. Investment that once flowed naturally into the basin is increasingly diverted to jurisdictions where policy is predictable and the fiscal regime is stable.
And for the first time in this survey’s long history, a third of companies now expect to reduce their North-east headcount within five years.These are not abstract statistics. They translate directly into fewer opportunities for people, a shrinking supply chain, and a diminished national capability at precisely the moment when the UK needs its energy workforce more than ever.
Yet the findings should not be interpreted as a lack of ambition from industry. The opposite is true. Across the supply chain, companies are demonstrating remarkable resilience and adaptability. One in two is now active beyond oil and gas or moving into new energy markets. Diversification is no longer a sidebar to the energy story in this region; it is central to how businesses are planning for the next decade.
But diversification without clear and coherent energy policy is a difficult path to follow. The message from respondents is unmistakable - policy uncertainty is eroding confidence across every part of the energy system. The Energy Profits Levy has stalled investment, delayed electrification and decommissioning projects, and undermined the business case for developments that would otherwise support jobs through the transition.
Nine in ten companies say the absence of a clear Scottish energy strategy is damaging confidence. And most businesses remain unclear on the remit of GB Energy – a mechanism that, if given a clear purpose and the right mandate, could help unlock progress rather than stall it.
Against this challenging backdrop, it is essential to reflect not only on the risks, but on the prize. Because the opportunity for North-east Scotland, if we get this right, is nothing short of transformational.
Recent analysis highlights a £96billion offshore wind pipeline within reach of this region. Scotland is positioned to capture a significant share of the global floating wind market, with the skills, port infrastructure and proximity to leasing sites that developers need.
In CCUS, the Acorn project alone represents nearly £18billion in economic value and could anchor thousands of long-term jobs. And in digitalisation, emissions-reduction technologies, remote operations, and well-plugging and abandonment, this region is already leading, and has the potential to build globally competitive clusters.
These opportunities are real. They are measurable. And they map directly onto the expertise of our existing workforce. But they require an investment environment that encourages companies to commit, rather than one that forces them to look elsewhere.
At D2Zero, our focus is on enabling emissions reduction today while accelerating investment into the technologies that deliver a net zero tomorrow. We see daily the ingenuity, capability, and ambition that exists across this region. We know that the companies who built the North Sea are the same companies who will help decarbonise it, and who will export that expertise to energy markets around the world. But they can only do so if the UK chooses to compete for that future.
This report makes clear what is needed: policy stability, a predictable fiscal regime, accelerated grid and consenting reform, and a just transition that protects the people and supply chain who will build the next generation of energy infrastructure.
North-east Scotland has powered the UK for half a century. With the right choices, it will power its net-zero future too. But the window for action is narrowing. The challenge now, for government, industry, and all of us invested in this region, is to turn the opportunity described in these pages into reality.
D2Zero is proud to support this research, proud to stand with the companies who contributed to it, and proud to champion a future where this region remains at the heart of the UK’s energy story.