As we look ahead to the UK Government’s Autumn Budget, the Energy Transition 42 survey finds the industry despondent. Confidence in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) remains low - unchanged from the previous survey - and revenue and profit expectations have softened.
It also reveals a sector at a critical juncture. While the UK market struggles with instability and policy ambiguity, a more pragmatic and commercially balanced evolution is taking place overseas.
This growing divergence poses a distinct threat to the UKCS. Companies cannot wait indefinitely for clarity and are actively diverting investment to international markets such as Norway, the UAE and the US.
Compared with the UK, international markets offer stability and dual focus. Production remains dominant but is funding investment in renewables and decarbonisation. Overseas regimes provide clearer frameworks and predictable returns, explaining why 42% of projected 2026 revenue is expected to come from outside the UKCS. But the UK can compete. With clarity and consistency, it can leverage its supply chain to capture transition opportunities at home and abroad.
The survey shows clearly that the UKCS is shifting rapidly toward decommissioning and transition projects. Production and exploration have fallen sharply - down 29% and 41% respectively - while renewables and decarbonisation show steady growth. This reallocation reflects regulatory pressure and economic reality, but it also signals opportunity. The UKCS supply chain has decades of engineering expertise, world-class offshore capability, and proven resilience. These strengths can be redeployed to deliver offshore wind, carbon capture utilisation and storage, and electrification at scale as long as a supportive policy framework can be established.
Jobs and skills remain a critical asset. According to the survey, talent is leaving for international roles, drawn by markets offering certainty and opportunity. If this trend persists, the UK risks losing the expertise needed to deliver on its energy transition goals. But the capability exists - and with the right conditions, it can be retained and expanded. Skills developed in oil and gas are directly transferable to offshore wind, carbon capture and electrification. The challenge is not capability - it is confidence.
There is important alignment on what matters most. Energy security has surged as a strategic priority, with near-universal agreement that domestic and European resilience is critical amid global instability. The survey also shows strong consensus that ending the Energy Profits Levy early would unlock investment, protect jobs, and increase tax revenues. This rare unity creates an opportunity for collective advocacy and decisive policy action.
Diversification is happening, and the UK supply chain’s ambition is clear. By 2030, new energy is forecast to account for just over half of business activity, with growth concentrated in decommissioning, offshore wind, and carbon capture. These segments will require new capabilities, partnerships, and investment models but our industry has the experience, the technology, and the determination to lead.
The message from this survey is unequivocal. The UK must restore confidence through fiscal clarity and regulatory stability while removing political party influence and bias. The forthcoming Budget is a critical moment - a chance to signal long-term commitment and create conditions for investment. The energy transition is not a distant horizon; it is unfolding now. With ambition, expertise, and the right support, the UKCS can remain competitive, deliver secure energy, and lead the transition for decades to come.