After five decades in this industry, I have witnessed extraordinary change. From the early days of North Sea exploration to the rise of digital technologies and the growing urgency of climate action, this sector has continually adapted to meet the needs of the nation. But today feels different. We are standing at a defining watershed moment, one that will shape not just the future of our industry, but the energy security, affordability, and resilience of the UK for generations to come.
The findings of this year’s survey reflect a sector that is both deeply capable and increasingly concerned. It is encouraging to see confidence in the UKCS slightly improved compared to the 40th survey issued in Autumn 2024, both for the next 12 months and looking ahead five years. Despite a challenging climate, its promising to see revenue growth has also improved since the last survey. That said, the survey makes it clear that confidence is still low, and we can’t overlook that.
In contrast, international markets are surging ahead. They are more stable, more attractive, and more confident. This of course is great news for UK companies looking to secure growth, diversify risk, and align with global energy dynamics. However, there is a risk we now face that’s not just economic; it is strategic. If we continue to lose investment, projects, and people to overseas markets, we risk creating a severe gap in our ability to meet the UK’s energy needs. That gap could make energy security and affordability dangerously unpredictable.
I want to emphasise this isn’t just a North Sea issue, it’s a national one. This extends beyond the energy sector, it’s the UK’s industrial strength at stake. Our energy system and heavy industries still rely on oil and gas, not just to keep the lights on, but to power hospitals, transport, manufacturing, and the very supply chains that underpin daily lives.
The survey findings reinforce the point that the pace and structure of the transition must be grounded in economic and operational reality. We’ve seen what happens when vision outpaces viability and when shareholder value is spotlighted. Examples since the last survey include Ørsted cancelling the Hornsea 4 offshore wind project, with a loose intention to revisit the project when it can create stronger value for shareholders. And by their own admission bp went “too far, too fast” stating their optimism was misplaced, resulting in a reset of their strategy.
On the topic of optimism, what stood out to me in the survey was the noticeable decline in the sense that the UK, Scotland, and Aberdeen can become global leaders in clean energy. From my perspective, a lack of optimism can quietly hold us back. While it’s important to stay grounded, we must also give ourselves permission to believe in what’s possible.
Optimism fuels momentum, unlocks creativity, and helps us approach challenges with a solutions-focused mindset. We have the skills, supply chain and the experience to lead.
The current policy environment might be undermining optimism and confidence but let’s focus on some positives. The consultation for the Oil and Gas Price Mechanism closed as this survey was launched. If designed well, it can help ensure the UK remains an attractive place to invest in secure, lower-emission energy, supporting our domestic production. We can only hope that the introduction of a new fiscal regime that restores stability and predictability happens sooner rather than later.
Similarly, the government’s commitment to updated environmental guidance following the Finch ruling was a welcome step toward providing clarity for future project approvals. Another encouraging development is the long overdue announcement of the Hydrogen Allocation Round 2 (HAR2) shortlisted projects, a vital step in advancing the UK’s hydrogen economy, powering sectors that are deeply woven into the fabric of daily life, including aviation, glass manufacturing, and brick-making. These are just a couple of the positive signals that, if followed through with clarity and consistency, could help restore investor confidence and reaffirm the UK’s position as both a reliable domestic energy producer and a leader in the energy transition.
The energy transition will not be delivered by policy alone. It will be delivered by people - engineers, innovators, commercial specialists, business strategists and more - who have spent their careers solving complex problems in some of the world’s harshest environments. We owe it to them, and to the communities they support, to get this right.
There is still time. But the window is narrowing. Let this survey be a call to action, not just to reflect, but to respond and to lead.