THERE was no fanfare of trumpets when Scotland’s exporting figures for 2014 were published recently by Scottish Government statisticians.
They showed the value of non-oil and gas exports had fallen by close on a billion pounds – or 3.2 per cent – the year before last.
It seems unlikely, given global economic headwinds and strength of the pound, that 2015 will, in due course, show any great improvement.
It was not all bad news.
For starters, it depends what you mean by “exporting”.
To most of us, Scotland is part of the UK market which is just as well since it is by far the biggest one for Scottish products and services.
In 2014, the value of Scottish “exports” to the rest of the UK rose by a cool £1.5billion.
We sent £48.5billion worth of goods and services to England, Wales and Northern Ireland – as opposed to £28.5billion to the rest of the world.
Outside the UK, our biggest market is, unsurprisingly, the rest of the European Union.
As the referendum debate develops, we will be reminded – not least by the Scottish Government – that 42 per cent of Scotland’s foreign trade is with the EU.
Converting that statistic into jobs is, in my view, likely to be the decisive factor for many voters, just as when Britain’s place in Europe was last tested by referendum in the 1970s.
That 42 per cent equates to £12billion in monetary terms, representing perhaps 300,000 jobs in Scotland.
Supporters of withdrawal will point out that not all, or even most, of these would be threatened by withdrawal.
However, it is more difficult to be confident about which ones would be safe.
All investment that has come into Scotland in recent decades has taken place within the context of EU membership and easy access to that market.
Inevitably, a great deal of uncertainty would arise.
Would it really be as easy to sell Scottish food or engineering parts or professional services as non-EU members? We really don’t know.
The difficulty for the current Scottish Government is that much the same argument applies to our membership of the United Kingdom – except it is four more times important to the Scottish economy in “exporting” terms than the rest of the EU put together.
It will be interesting to see how that analogy is confronted, or indeed avoided.
Our exporting effort benefits from both Scottish and British identities and we should ride horses for courses.
Proudly-branded Scotch whisky remains our most valuable export while in other key sectors, the British identity is vital.
In that spirit, I am pleased that the UK Government’s well-financed ‘Exporting is GREAT’ campaign - www.exportingisgreat.gov.uk- is raising its standard in Scotland, with full involvement of the Scottish Government.
Its roadshow was at the AECC on March 2 to encourage more companies into exporting – which ultimately is the surest way of improving upon these plateauing trade figures.