by Russell Borthwick, Chief Executive, Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce
News at the weekend of possible question marks over the future of two big offshore finds due to the windfall tax is potentially a huge body blow for the UK's North Sea energy industry.
However, this development will come as little surprise to anyone that has been following the Chamber's "Reasoned Debate" campaign and commentary over the last six months.
In December, we wrote to both of our governments warning that poor policy decisions and positions taken now would threaten tens of thousands of jobs, put our domestic energy security at risk and severely weaken our first-mover advantage in developing low carbon energies by driving away investment from the UK Continental Shelf.
Clear evidence of this now appears to be emerging, as can be seen in the Telegraph story suggesting that Equinor is considering pulling out of a planned £4.5billion investment in the Rosebank field, and Shell said to be "less likely" to develop the £2billion Cambo project.
Just last month, we wrote our final letter to the Chancellor on behalf of the business community of the north-east, urging him to resist calls to impose a windfall tax on energy companies.
Rishi Sunak himself had regularly dismissed the idea of such a levy, latterly saying: "Of course a windfall tax sounds superficially appealing, but we on the Government benches deal with complex problems in a responsible way. The obvious impact of a windfall tax would be to deter investment - it is as simple as that. At this moment I want to see more investment in the North Sea, not less. Last year, we saw the lowest amount of investment on record in the North Sea."
But, rather than taking an informed decision for our economy, the tax was introduced regardless. This was a populist and politically-expedient move to superficially tackle the cost-of-living crisis when it was already within the gift of UK Government - as there were already increasing levels of return going to the Exchequer from the energy and other sectors.
This, alongside the Scottish Government's refusal to publicly back the role of the oil-and-gas sector, is creating the uncertainty which will prompt investment to go elsewhere, as we are now beginning to see.
Ultimately this is a matter of whether our governments want a successful energy transition or not, something they say they are committed to. Right now, actions are speaking louder than words, sadly.
So, we ask again that policymakers at Westminster and Holyrood work together, with industry and business, to create the conditions to ensure this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is not missed due to political mis-management. Protecting jobs and delivering energy security in the here and now and unlocking the technologies and projects which are central to our net-zero journey.
And, on the last point, and without wanting to sound parochial, the Aberdeen region - Europe's oil and gas capital - is the one hardest and most directly impacted by all of this.
But the area also possesses many of the ingredients to take a leading role in the energy transition.
So, in this context, a good policy decision that must be taken over the next few months is that the North East Scotland Green Freeport bid must be given the go ahead. It will unlock 30,000 jobs and £7.5bn of GVA. But are our politicians listening this time?
Find out more about the bid and add your backing here.