Scotland must triple its renewable energy output and accelerate the shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps if it is to meet ambitious new climate targets, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
In its first advice on Scottish carbon budgets, published today, the UK’s statutory climate adviser recommends binding targets that would see greenhouse gas emissions fall 94% by 2045, compared to 1990 levels. This would include emissions from international aviation and shipping for the first time.
The report also reinforces the need for urgent investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen to decarbonise Scotland’s heavy industry – placing renewed focus on the Scottish Cluster and Acorn project in the North-east.
Delivering on the CCC’s recommended pathway will require rapid progress in electrifying homes and transport, with electric technologies accounting for almost half of future emissions cuts.
Professor Piers Forster, Interim Chair of the CCC, described the new budgets as a “good news story” that gives Scotland a clear route to net zero. But he urged immediate action: “We do need to see delivery now. The Scottish Government has the powers it needs – particularly in buildings, transport and land use – and we encourage them to use them fully.”
The CCC's pathway includes ambitious milestones: by 2035, 60% of cars and vans on Scottish roads should be electric, and 40% of homes heated by low-carbon systems, mainly heat pumps. It also estimates renewable capacity is set to more than quadruple by 2045, meeting almost all of Scotland’s electricity needs and boosting supply across Great Britain.
While the net cost of delivering the budgets is estimated at just 0.4% of Scotland’s GDP annually, the CCC says wider benefits – including cleaner air and lower, more stable energy bills – could be substantial.
Russell Borthwick, Chief Executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “This report underlines the urgency of supporting the infrastructure and technologies that will power Scotland’s net zero transition – particularly electric heat and transport.
"It also makes clear that the Scottish Cluster and Acorn CCS project are vital. We urge the UK Government to back them fully, because without carbon capture, clean power and hydrogen in the North-east, the path to net zero will be slower, riskier, and more expensive.”
The CCC also highlighted the need for stronger action to decarbonise farming, better support for energy efficiency in homes, and a concerted effort to make electricity cheaper – including removing policy costs from bills – if Scotland is to stay on track.