Britain is facing the risk of severe gas shortages as plunging North Sea output leaves the country dangerously dependent on foreign suppliers, the National Energy System Operator (Neso) has warned.
In a report, Neso said gas production was set for a steep decline because of Labour’s energy policies, after assessing the impact of the 78% tax rate and the ban on new exploration.
It forecast gas availability would be 78% lower by 2035 and warned North Sea output would fall from 27bcm to just 5bcm, leaving the UK heavily reliant on Norway, the US and Qatar, with import dependency “above 90%” during peak winter demand.
Neso cautioned that even with all infrastructure operating, the UK faces “an emerging risk to UK gas supply security”, and said supply would fall short in the event of losing a major pipeline or LNG terminal.
The Telegraph says the findings contradict Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s pledge to reduce reliance on “petrostates”, prompting shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho to say: “This report should be a wake-up call.”
Analyst Chris Wheaton said Neso may be “too optimistic”, warning the UK could run out of LNG import capacity by 2031, while Ashley Kelty argued current government policy “makes no sense” and prioritises “virtue signalling” over security.
Reform UK’s Richard Tice said Britain’s predicament was caused by poor policy rather than geology, insisting: “We need to increase UK oil and gas exploration by reducing the energy profits levy and motivating investment.”