Researchers have produced a detailed "future flood map" of Britain - simulating the impact of flooding as climate change takes its toll.

It has revealed that annual damage caused by flooding could increase by more than a fifth over the next century, unless international pledges to reduce carbon emissions are met.

Climate change is set to have a particular impact on "hotspots" where homes and businesses are in harm's way.

The BBC says that, even if climate-change pledges are met - keeping temperature increase to around 1.8C - places including south-east England, north-west England and south Wales are set to experience significantly increased flooding.

The detail in the new "flood risk map" also reveals locations that will be largely unaffected. This level of detail, the researchers say, is critical for planning decisions.

To create these flood risk maps, the research team from Bristol University and Fathom - a company that assesses flood and climate risk - simulated all types of flooding in the coming decades.

Detailed picture

They used information about terrain, river flow, rainfall patterns and sea level to build a detailed picture of how much flood damage there would be to people's homes and businesses across England, Scotland and Wales.

They combined this with Met Office climate predictions over the next century.

The team is also currently modelling flooding in Northern Ireland to expand the forecasts to include the whole of the UK as the climate warms.

The annual cost of flood damage across the UK currently, according to the Association of British Insurers, is £700million.

The chief research officer at Fathom, Oliver Wing, explained that it was crucial to understand how that "flood-risk landscape" would change in a warming world, because it will be different for every community.

"Our model shows that there are many places where flood risk is growing," said Dr Wing. "Being able to understand the communities where this is likely to happen allows us to make sensible investment decisions - about flood-defence structures, natural flood management or even moving people out of harm's way."

Little change for some

But many places are set to see very little change or - when it comes to flood risk - actually improve, Dr Wing explained.

Those areas include swathes of north-east and central England as well as eastern and northern Scotland.


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