The UK faces a heightened risk of summer travel disruption due to its reliance on imported jet fuel, with analysts warning it is more exposed than any other European country.
According to Allianz, Britain’s jet fuel deficit is around twice that of any other European nation, leaving it vulnerable to ongoing supply shocks linked to tensions in the Middle East and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ano Kuhanathan, head of corporate research at Allianz, told the Telegraph: “The UK is Europe’s most structurally exposed market to jet-fuel shortages, relying heavily on imports to meet aviation demand and running persistent refining kerosene deficit, leaving it particularly vulnerable to supply shocks.”
The warning comes as UK refining capacity has declined, with only four refineries remaining following recent closures, and ministers urging operators to maximise jet fuel output.
Imports from the US have increased sharply, but overall shipments are falling – down 82% so far in April – raising concerns of a supply shortfall by late May if the trend continues.
Allianz warned this could push airfares up by a further 15%, particularly on long-haul routes, adding: “To the detriment of travellers, airfares are unlikely to fully revert to pre-shock levels, regardless of the duration of the ongoing fuel disruption.
“Once higher fare levels are accepted by the market, they tend to persist and are rarely fully rolled back, even if underlying cost pressures subsequently ease.”
Industry figures have also flagged the UK’s dependence on imports from Kuwait, while the International Energy Agency has warned Europe could face jet fuel shortages within weeks if disruption continues.
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