A think tank founded by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has urged ministers to rethink the future of the North Sea, warning that recent geopolitical tensions have made domestic energy production and offshore infrastructure more strategically important than ever.
Our Scottish Future has published North Sea Energy – A Second Life, a report by King's College London professor Nick Butler, which argues that up to 50,000 jobs could be lost if investment continues to fall and developments such as Rosebank and Jackdaw fail to proceed.
Professor Butler also warns that a ban on new exploration and what the report describes as "the hostile environment which has been created for the oil and gas industry in the UK" risk accelerating the decline. He argues that remaining reserves and future discoveries should be developed over the next decade, with part of the proceeds helping fund a wider North Sea transformation programme.
The intervention from the think tank, established by Mr Brown in 2021, follows recent comments from former prime minister Sir Tony Blair which reignited debate over Labour's approach to net zero.
According to the report, recent instability in the Middle East has exposed the vulnerability of global energy supply chains and reinforced the importance of maintaining domestic production while accelerating the development of offshore wind, hydrogen and carbon capture technologies.
Professor Butler said: "Recent events have demonstrated that frictionless globalisation cannot be relied upon to maintain national energy security.
"Rather than allowing decades of expertise, infrastructure and industrial capability to be lost, we should use them to build the next generation of offshore energy industries. The North Sea has been one of the UK's greatest industrial success stories over the last 50 years. We now have an opportunity to use those same skills and assets to support economic growth, strengthen energy security and accelerate the transition to lower-carbon sources of energy."
The report builds on Our Scottish Future's 2023 "North Sea 2" proposals, which set out how existing platforms, pipelines and processing facilities could be repurposed to support offshore wind, carbon capture and storage, green hydrogen and eventually a shared North Sea power network.
Drawing on examples from Norway, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands, Professor Butler argues that preserving strategic industrial capability will be essential to reducing reliance on imports and strengthening energy security.
He said: "North Sea oil production will inevitably decline over time, but that should not mean turning our backs on an industry that continues to provide jobs, investment and energy security. The challenge is to manage the transition in a way that protects our strategic interests while creating a new industrial success story that can deliver economic and environmental benefits for decades to come.
"The case for North Sea 2 is, in this context, indisputable."
The report also argues that repurposing existing infrastructure could reduce decommissioning costs, attract investment and create a globally competitive low-carbon offshore sector, while helping safeguard highly skilled jobs in North-east Scotland and across the wider UK supply chain.