When economists talk about investment decisions, they often reach for data: prices, returns, costs, capacity. But John Maynard Keynes understood something deeper. He argued that economic outcomes are shaped just as much by psychology – by confidence, optimism and fear – what he famously called “animal spirits”.
Decades later, behavioural economists like Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler would show, with Nobel-prize-winning rigour, that people do not make decisions as perfectly rational actors. They respond to uncertainty. They hesitate when trust is low. They pull back when the future feels unpredictable.
That insight matters profoundly for energy.
Because energy transitions are not delivered by targets alone. They are delivered by millions of individual decisions – to invest, to train, to stay, to commit – all of which are shaped by confidence.
That is why Aspect decided to write Confidence on the Edge.
Why we wrote this paper
Over the past few years, in conversations with leaders across energy and decarbonisation, we noticed a growing tension.
There is strong alignment on ambition. Net zero. A renewables-heavy power system. Major grid upgrades. A role for storage, hydrogen and carbon capture. Few senior leaders seriously dispute the destination.
But there is far less confidence in execution.
We kept hearing the same things, in different words, from different parts of the system: frustration with volatility; fatigue with shifting rules; uncertainty about whether the UK remains a predictable place to do energy business.
We felt it was time to listen more carefully – and more systematically.
So, we conducted in-depth interviews with senior figures across the UK energy system: oil and gas, renewables, networks, storage, supply chains, investors and advisers. We asked them not just what they think, but how confident they feel – because confidence, or the lack of it, shapes behaviour in powerful ways.
What emerged is not a story of an sector in collapse. Nor is it one serenely on track.
It is a system on the edge.
A fractured confidence landscape
One of the most striking findings in Confidence on the Edge is how uneven confidence is across the system.
In regulated networks, confidence remains relatively strong. Long-dated regulatory frameworks, predictable investment pipelines and clear rules still attract capital. Where the system behaves like a system, confidence holds.
In oil and gas and offshore energy services, confidence has eroded sharply. Policy volatility, fiscal uncertainty and unclear long-term intent have left many leaders describing the UK Continental Shelf as uninvestable. Capital and skills are redeploying elsewhere.
Renewables and storage sit somewhere in between. Leaders remain convinced of long-term demand, but are bruised by auction failures, grid constraints and political noise. Belief in direction remains high; confidence in delivery is far weaker.
These differences matter.
When confidence is misaligned across a system, it moves more slowly, at higher cost, and with greater friction than necessary. Supply chains hesitate. Skills drift. Investment becomes selective.
Across every sector, leaders draw a sharp distinction between confidence in ambition and confidence in execution. The former remains intact. The latter is under strain.
Confidence is already shaping outcomes
This is not an abstract problem.
Confidence is already influencing decisions: where capital is deployed, which projects progress, whether people commit to careers in the sector, and how willing organisations are to invest ahead of certainty.
The interviews also make clear what the problem is not.
Technology is not widely seen as the binding constraint. The UK has world-class engineering capability, deep energy expertise, and proven technologies across wind, networks, storage and system optimisation.
The harder challenge lies in turning ambition into delivery: aligning policy, regulation, planning and investment in ways that feel credible, predictable and honest about trade-offs.
Repeatedly missing interim targets without candour risks something more serious than delay – it risks credibility erosion. And once confidence drains away, it is far harder to rebuild than to maintain.
A system, not a set of silos
Another clear message from the research is how interconnected the energy system has become – and how unhelpful it is to frame different parts of it in opposition to one another.
Oil and gas, renewables, networks and storage are not separate debates. They rely on shared infrastructure, shared skills and shared supply chains. Framing them as competing camps obscures the system reality leaders are grappling with.
Many interviewees stressed the importance of empathy – understanding how the transition looks and feels from elsewhere in the system. For some readers, that perspective shift may be as valuable as any single finding.
Why confidence matters to leadership
Leadership in this moment is about more than running individual organisations well.
It is about articulating interests clearly and constructively. About explaining constraints honestly. About resisting simplistic narratives in favour of credible sequencing and delivery.
From our work supporting leaders through complex change, we see that the most effective leadership combines deep system understanding with clear judgement, fresh insight and a focus on impact.
That is particularly true in energy, where public trust, investor confidence and social licence are now tightly intertwined.
A stake in the ground
Confidence on the Edge is not a final word. It is a stake in the ground.
It reflects Aspect’s belief in listening first, reflecting carefully, and contributing constructively to the debate. We do not claim to have all the answers. But we do believe that understanding confidence – where it holds, where it falters, and why – is now fundamental to delivering the transition.
The UK is not short of ambition, ingenuity or capital. But confidence is becoming a decisive variable.
Whether it stabilises or continues to drain away will depend on choices made in the next few years – on policy credibility, delivery realism and leadership candour.
That is what this paper seeks to illuminate.
Download the white paper
Confidence on the Edge offers a candid, system-wide view of how UK energy leaders see the road through 2026 and beyond – and what confidence will determine along the way.
Download the full white paper and join the conversation.