The North-east of Scotland has less than five years to secure its future as a global energy hub, according to a new report from Robert Gordon University, which warns the region risks losing thousands of high-value jobs and critical skills if the transition from oil and gas to renewables is not carefully managed.
The Delivering Positive Energy report, produced by RGU’s Energy Transition Institute and part-funded by Scottish Enterprise, identifies a “Goldilocks zone” over the next five years in which declining oil and gas employment must be matched by growth in offshore renewables to avoid a permanent loss of skills and supply chain capability.
Researchers found the North-east currently hosts around one-third of the UK’s 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs and one-quarter of the country’s 154,000 offshore energy roles. More than 42,000 people work in the sector locally, equivalent to almost one in six of the region’s workforce.
18,000 jobs at risk
However, the report warns that the offshore energy workforce could shrink by a further 18,000 people by 2035 unless investment in new industries accelerates. Around 90% of current offshore energy jobs remain tied to oil and gas, with only 10% in renewables.
Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of RGU’s Energy Transition Institute, said: “A picture is now clearly developing of how the one-time oil capital of Europe has a genuine opportunity to redefine itself and reaffirm its status as a global centre of energy excellence.
"The workers who helped build one of the world's most productive offshore basins have the skills to power its next chapter. It should give rise to a sense of cautious optimism, but the question is whether the conditions are put in place quickly enough for that to happen.
“European offshore wind ambitions will require the construction and installation of around 17,000 turbines and associated infrastructure between now and 2050, the equivalent of two new turbines every day for the next 25 years. The UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium are expected to deliver the bulk of the European 300 GW offshore wind target, and much of that activity falls within the natural catchment of the North-east of Scotland.”
Aberdeen has a head start
The report says more than 90% of skills in the existing offshore workforce are transferable to renewables and adjacent sectors, giving the region a significant competitive advantage. Over 70% of ScotWind leasing bids are within 100 nautical miles of the North-east coastline.
Professor de Leeuw added: “The workforce and supply chain who built and maintained the North Sea infrastructure are, in large part, the same people the offshore renewables industry needs. Most roles are highly transferable, requiring short-term upskilling rather than wholesale retraining.
“That is not a marginal advantage. It is a structural head start that few other regions in the UK or Europe can match. What the region does next will determine whether it captures that opportunity or watches it pass.”
He said the consequences of failing to bridge the gap between declining oil and gas activity and growing renewables investment would be severe.
“The ‘Goldilocks zone’ is real and the window is closing. Once that skilled workforce disperses, it does not come back. The North-east of Scotland has the assets, the geography, and the people to make this transition work. What it needs now is the investment, policy alignment, and coordination to match.
“The real risk is that if experienced workers leave the region before renewables can offer comparable opportunities, the skills base will erode. The supply chain capacity would also reduce, and when offshore wind projects arrive at scale, the workforce to deliver them may no longer be here. We are very much entering a make-or-break period.”
Findings matter 'far beyond Aberdeen'
Russell Borthwick, Chief Executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “The findings of this report matter far beyond the North-east of Scotland. They go to the heart of the UK’s energy security, economic resilience and international competitiveness. While the impact is being felt most acutely here, the consequences of getting this wrong will be felt across Scotland and the UK.
“What is happening is not an inevitable consequence of geology. It is the result of policy choices. Countries including the Netherlands and Canada are reassessing their approach to domestic energy production and security, recognising that transition must be managed pragmatically and in a way that protects jobs, investment and capability.
“The effects are already reaching far beyond energy companies. Every quarter, our own economic surveys show the knock-on impacts being felt by businesses across the wider economy. This is no longer just an energy issue.
“The North-east has everything required to lead a UK all-energy future. We have world-class subsea and engineering expertise, decades of offshore experience, outstanding infrastructure and a highly skilled workforce. This is not a region asking for post-industrial bailouts. We are asking for the fiscal and regulatory conditions that will allow us to grow."