The UK is on course to miss its 2030 clean power target by up to a decade due to delays in offshore wind, nuclear closures and rising electricity demand, according to analysis by Cornwall Insight.
The consultancy forecasts Britain will reach just 86% low-carbon power generation by 2030, well below Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s target of 95%.
Tom Edwards, principal modeller at Cornwall Insight, said: “Somewhere between the mid-2030s and mid-2040s is the realistic time for meeting that 95% target.”
Cornwall told The Times that the outlook reflects “real-world” challenges including “persistent grid connection delays, elevated capital costs from higher interest rates, market saturation of certain technologies such as batteries, slower offshore wind and nuclear rollout and continued policy uncertainty around long-term revenue frameworks”.
Rising demand from electric vehicles, heat pumps and data centres, alongside the planned closure of two nuclear plants in 2028 and delays to Hinkley Point C, are expected to widen the gap.
Energy minister Michael Shanks has insisted the target will be met, saying: “Yes, full stop,” adding: “Every step we get closer, I have more confidence that we will achieve it because what it has helped unlock is a momentum in the industry to do things that we thought in this country were not possible: to build big things and to do it faster.”
A spokesperson for the energy department responded: “This is wrong. People only have to wait a few days to see the results of our flagship renewables auction, which will demonstrate progress on our clean-power mission by 2030.”