Nigel Farage is on course to become the UK’s next prime minister, according to a major YouGov poll that points to a collapse in Conservative and Labour support.
The seat-by-seat projection, based on a survey of 13,000 people, suggests Reform UK would win 311 seats if an election were held tomorrow – 15 short of an outright majority in the Commons.
Once the Speaker and Sinn Féin’s abstentions are factored in, the result would leave Mr Farage best placed to form a government as leader of the largest party in Westminster.
The findings – for Sky News - represent a dramatic shift from last year’s general election, when Labour secured a landslide with 411 MPs.
The new projection cuts that tally to just 144 – Labour’s lowest since 1931 – while the Conservatives would slump to 45 seats.
Reform UK currently holds just five MPs, meaning the forecasted jump of more than 300 would represent the biggest increase for any party in British electoral history. Other results put the Liberal Democrats on 78 seats, SNP on 37, Greens on seven, and Plaid Cymru on six.
The poll underlines the scale of voter volatility since Sir Keir Starmer entered No 10 last year. It suggests his party is now performing worse than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, when Labour won 202 seats.