The UK will be forced to import almost three-quarters of its gas by 2030 as North Sea reserves are depleted, according to analysis of official forecasts.
It is estimated that some 70% of Britain’s gas is forecast to come from abroad by 2030, figures show, rising to 80% a decade later and 85% by 2050.
The figures are based on production projections from the Oil and Gas Authority and estimates of energy demand by Government adviser, the Climate Change Committee. The analysis was performed by the Financial Times.
Falling production
Domestic oil and gas production has been falling since it peaked at the turn of the millennium and is in long-term decline.
North Sea gas production last year was an estimated 32bn cubic metres, according to the OGA, but output is forecast to fall to 17.5bn cubic metres by 2030, 6.9bn by 2040 and 2.7bn by 2050.
Demand for natural gas, which remains critical for heating homes and other industries, however, is set to fall at a slower rate than production. According to a “balanced net zero pathway” scenario set out by the CCC, UK demand in 2030 would still stand at 56bn cubic metres, dropping to 32.4bn in 2040 and 18.3bn a decade later.
Meanwhile, the UK is under pressure from environmental campaigners to scale back North Sea projects.
Shell’s decision to pull out of the Cambo oilfield in December was seen as a turning point, signalling what some described as the “death-knell” for North Sea exploration.
But the UK Government has vowed not to end drilling immediately despite seeking to go carbon neutral by the middle of the century.
New fields
Six North Sea oil and gas fields are set to be given the green light this year.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak has asked Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, to fast-track the licenses amid Treasury fears over the economic impact of making the UK a net zero carbon emitter by 2050.
Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, wants to halt further exploitation of the North Sea and told the House of Commons on Wednesday that it was “extraordinary” that ministers were planning to approve new fields.
She said the new drilling would be against the “spirit if not the letter” of the international COP26 agreement to cut emissions.
However, Greg Hands, energy minister, defended the government, saying: “Flicking a switch and turning off our domestic source of gas overnight would put energy security, British jobs and industries at risk and we would be even more dependent on imports."