New analysis shows the UK could meet more of its energy needs from home - which could help cut imports, protect jobs, meet government climate targets, and boost economic growth
The UK could meet half of its oil and gas needs from the North Sea, almost double what is currently forecast while also transforming its energy system to be powered by more renewables, according to new independent analysis for Offshore Energies UK (OEUK).
The independent study, produced for OEUK by energy experts Westwood Global Energy Group, finds that up to 7.5 billion barrels of oil and gas could still be produced from UK waters – 3.2 billion more than current government estimates.
This additional production could add £165 billion in economic value, with a total of £385 billion if the UK meets half its oil and gas demand from domestic sources, supporting jobs, investment, and public services across the country.
The government’s independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee, say in a scenario where the UK meets all its climate targets on time, UK homes and businesses will still use between 13 and 15 billion barrels of oil and gas. But current forecasts suggest the North Sea will produce less than 4 billion – meeting under a third of that need.
The trade body today warned that without government support for the sector the UK risks a faster North Sea decline which could see it become dependent on oil and gas imports for 80% of its needs within this decade. The industry has been calling for continued licences and changes to the windfall tax, with the UK government expected to outline its policies this autumn following two major consultations.
Official statistics show that the UK’s total energy production hit a record low in 2024, importing over 40% of its total energy needs from overseas. The Prime Minister has stated energy security is national security. OEUK has consistently made the case for the build out of homegrown renewable energy alongside the responsible production of domestic oil and gas.
The report comes ahead of OEUK’s annual conference in Aberdeen on Tuesday 23 June where over 300 delegates from the sector will discuss the future of the North Sea.
This month marks 50 years of North Sea oil and gas production. Over the decades, even the most efficient fields naturally produce less in what is known as a decline.
OEUK said the report highlights a critical distinction between a natural geologically driven decline and a faster decline driven by policy. It says the accelerated policy driven decline could take domestic oil and gas production to just 2.6 billion barrels in Westwood’s low case scenario.
Securing this energy would:
- Deliver reliable domestic supplies with lower emissions, increase tax revenue and support 200,000 jobs across the UK
- Reduce the UK’s reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), which carries a greenhouse gas footprint up to four times higher than gas produced from the North Sea.
- Deliver energy security producing a vital buffer for UK households and businesses by limiting the impact of disruptions to global supplies
The report draws on geological data to identify remaining so-called recoverable volumes, particularly in areas within 25 to 50 kilometres of existing infrastructure. It provides new insights which show that most of the remaining viable oil and gas is within 50 kilometres of existing hubs, meaning it can be developed quickly and cleanly.
There are currently 67 hubs producing or under development – with each hub representing a complex set of infrastructure needed to produce and transport oil and gas from UK waters to onshore terminals dotted around the British coast. These hubs include fixed and floating oil and gas production platforms which house offshore workers and host production equipment, and a network of infrastructure under the sea including pipelines which take the oil and gas to shore.
The report shows the next five years are crucial for slowing the rate of decline from existing hubs of infrastructure, with three of the largest hubs based in the West of Shetland region. The Southern North Sea is the only region with no new fields under development today despite encouraging exploration success.
It shows that over 7 billion barrels are geologically proven and technically accessible. These resources include:
- 0.5 billion barrels in near-term developments with advanced plans
- 1.4 billion barrels in potentially commercial discoveries
- Over 7.3 billion barrels within reach of existing infrastructure – making them viable as tiebacks to existing platforms
The findings show these new projects would make a material difference to the UK’s energy independence. This proximity is key: developing fields as tiebacks reduces costs, lowers emissions, and extends the life of existing critical infrastructure. However, many of these hubs are approaching end-of-life, and without timely investment, the opportunity to develop these resources could be lost.
The UK’s offshore basin is naturally declining – with over 280 active oil and gas fields today, but around 180 expected to cease production by 2030. This is normal in a mature basin. But to avoid a steep drop in domestic supply, the UK needs a steady flow of new developments to replace what is running out.
OEUK warned that once hubs are switched off, it will be near technically impossible to turn them back on should the UK need the reserves.
Continued production also supports the UK’s integrated energy supply chain, which underpins both oil and gas and the growth of renewables. Without this continuity, critical skills, infrastructure, and investment could be lost, weakening the very foundation of the UK’s energy future.
OEUK Chief Executive David Whitehouse said: “This independent report shows the UK can make much better use of its own North Sea oil and gas to power the country, protect jobs, and cut the need for imports, all while we also accelerate renewables. This is not about oil and gas versus wind but about whether we prioritise homegrown oil and gas over imports.
“The UK is at a record 40 percent of imported energy, with policy decisions not geology driving an accelerated decline in North Sea production. In an increasingly volatile world, if we act now, the UK can meet more of its oil, gas and renewables needs from homegrown resources – we need it all.
“This is the approach being taken by countries like Norway and New Zealand which combines energy security with climate leadership.
“Our message to government is to back pragmatic homegrown production, unlocking an additional £165 billion of economic value to the country, protecting 200,000 jobs and meeting our climate goals. This means supporting continued production oil and gas in UK waters and bringing forward changes to the windfall tax when the government responds to key consultations expected this autumn.
“These are important times – back our North Sea energy and together we can help back the future of the UK.”