Britain’s North Sea is set to pump one billion barrels of oil and gas less than previously forecast, according to new figures from the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA).
The regulator, which reports to Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, has cut its estimate for output between 2025 and 2050 by 124 million tonnes of oil equivalent, according to The Telegraph.
The revised forecast implies the UK will rely far more on imported energy by 2050, with liquefied natural gas - which has around four times the emissions of domestic supply - set to grow from 15% of the gas mix today to 60%.
Comparison of the NSTA’s 2023 production outlook with its latest figures shows the scale of the downgrade. Last autumn it predicted 681 million tonnes of oil and gas would be produced by 2050; that has now been slashed to 557 million tonnes.
Industry leaders are warning that investment - and jobs - are draining away. Mark Lappin, chair of Deltic Energy and of Brindex, said government policy - which includes 78% taxes and a ban on new drilling - was “hostile”.
Claire Coutinho, the Tory shadow energy secretary, said: “This is complete insanity. Ed Miliband is costing the UK a billion barrels of oil… He needs to get a grip, scrap the energy price levy, end the ban on new oil and gas licences and back the North Sea.”
A UK Government spokesman said: “While oil and gas will continue to play an important role for decades to come, independent data from the NSTA shows that production has steadily declined for the past 20 years, with the UK becoming a net importer since 2003.
“We are delivering a fair and orderly transition in the North Sea to drive growth and secure tens of thousands of skilled jobs, with the biggest ever investment in offshore wind and three first of a kind carbon capture and storage clusters.”