There will be no cliff-edge end to oil and gas – that’s what our politicians tell us, as they espouse grand visions of Scotland and the UK becoming a green energy powerhouse.
No worker will be left behind – that’s what they tell the 215,000 people who rely on the energy sector to pay their mortgages and put food on the table.
We will not repeat the mistakes of the 1980s – their vow to communities who fear an industrial decimation, which mirrors the fate of our mining and steel heartlands.
They talk of the energy transition being a “just” one, where our riggers will wipe down their overalls and hop into renewables roles.
However, that transition will not feel particularly “just” to the 1,000 people (and counting) who now face an uncertain future at Petroineos, Harbour Energy and Apache.
The only transition they face is one into unemployment, thanks largely to the political hostility their employers face.
At the very moment where we require grown-up and pragmatic policy discussions about our energy future, we have ended up with student politics ignorant of the industrial and societal change required.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Andrew Gardner, the chairman of Petroineos, warned that Labour’s plans to end North Sea exploration put Grangemouth at risk.
And the muddled position of the SNP-Green administration in Edinburgh – which has a presumption against North Sea drilling on one hand, but opposes increasing energy imports on the other – has further compounded the issue.
The collective message to industry from these politicians has been so negative and so muddled that it has created a mess of impressive proportions; a guddle, as Scots would say.
And unless these parties wake up to the role oil and gas – and the North Sea – has to play in our energy future, things could get worse.
Focus needed on a progressive tax regime
If you believe the polls, an incoming Labour government will come to power with just 2% of the offshore sector believing they have the right policies to deliver energy security and just 7% backing their vision for the energy transition.
These companies can do little to sway what happens at the ballot box. However, their investment decisions right now will have greater influence over our future energy security than any political party.
The reality is this: there is no energy transition without oil and gas. The opportunities in renewables do not yet exist at scale so if we lose oil and gas, we lose the world class workforce and supply chain required to deliver these complex new technologies.
Before we can put the brakes on oil and gas, we need to hit the accelerator on the energy transition. We need to create new jobs before driving away existing ones.
Our planning system is in urgent need of reform, our grid infrastructure requires gargantuan sums of investment to meet the needs of tomorrow, and we need a progressive tax regime which encourages energy firms to invest in the UKCS. This is where political efforts should be focused.
Thelma and Louise at the wheel
The path to net zero requires four things – and they span business, government and the public at large.
First, we need to reduce demand, and that involves everyone. Right now, three-quarters of the UK’s energy consumption is derived from oil and gas.
Second, we need to develop new sources and ways of storing energy – such as hydrogen and offshore wind – to help us further diversify our energy mix.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, we need the public and our politicians to understand and accept that this could easily take two, perhaps three decades, to deliver.
And fourth, it requires us to find the most efficient way to source oil and gas in the meantime. Right now, that has to be from the North Sea, where the gas we produce is up to four times cleaner than imported LNG.
Failure to embrace and extract what we have left in the North Sea will bring about the sudden demise of our energy sector that all parties say they want to avoid.
We are rapidly approaching that cliff-edge they speak of. And right now, it feels like Thelma and Louise are at the wheel.