Yesterday’s King’s Speech was a first not only for the new monarch, Charles III, but also for Rishi Sunak’s beleaguered government.
If the polls are any indication, however, it may well be the PM’s first and only opportunity to set out a legislative programme.
It is ironic, then, that the rhetoric today was all about the long term – the UK’s long term economic prospects, energy security, and international positioning – a thematic emphasis not only liable to be undercut by the vagaries of the electoral cycle, but which, in itself, provides tacit acknowledgement that there are no quick fixes for the structural economic and demographic challenges we face, for our strained public services, or any swift resolution in sight to the conflicts shaping our geopolitical environment.
But despite all the talk about the future, make no mistake, the announcements today were all about the near-term political horizon.
Yesterday’s King’s Speech was all about the Conservatives consolidating their platform ahead of next year’s General Election. They badly need to reconnect with their electorate and differentiate themselves from their opponents.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, meanwhile, have their course firmly set on No. 10. They calculate that the next election will be won or lost in the middle ground, and they are bending over backwards to be as mainstream as possible in order to appeal to swing voters; it may be a bit anodyne, but so far, it seems to be working for them.
The Tories, still reeling from some truly dreadful by-election losses in previously ultra-safe seats last month, appear to be pursuing more of a ‘core vote’ strategy, trying to shore up support on the right.
The Government will hope headline-grabbing announcements on dog whistle issues like tougher sentencing for the most serious (and emotive) of violent crimes will resonate with their traditional base, especially those lower- and middle-income right-wing voters who are struggling with ever-increasing household bills, have yet to see any of the promised Brexit dividend, and have been left feeling angry and politically abandoned.
Having a distinctive platform will be crucial to Tory hopes of holding marginal seats, even if this is more cosmetic than substantial.
A commitment to the annual issuing of new oil and gas licences is fairly meaningless when you potentially have only a few more months in office, but it does put your opponents under pressure to come off the fence.
Both Labour and the SNP have been altogether more squeamish (and internally divided) over new oil and gas licensing and the Tories will be hoping to exploit that diffidence, especially in areas where the energy sector supports substantial numbers of well-paid jobs.
Whether this will be enough to help them hang on remains to be seen, and will depend not just on their opponents’ responses, but whether the electorate can be convinced that this Government has a coherent vision for the future and has their best interests at heart.
On the rather flimsy evidence presented on Tuesday morning, they will still have a lot of persuading to do.
Dr Eilidh Whiteford is a former SNP MP for the Banff & Buchan constituency and is now a Senior Policy Adviser at strategic consultancy firm True North.