Oil prices have fallen amid uncertainty following a US operation to oust Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, with markets weighing both near-term disruption risks and the longer-term prospect of increased supply.
Brent crude slipped 0.5% to $59.82 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6% to $56.97. Venezuela currently produces less than 1% of global oil output due to sanctions and a naval blockade, but crucially holds around 17% of the world’s proven crude reserves.
The FT reports that traders were assessing the impact of potential US intervention at a time when analysts are warning of an approaching oil glut. Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, said the prevailing assumption was that intervention would weigh on prices as markets anticipated additional Venezuelan supply. “People are going to assume there’s going to be a lot more oil in the medium term,” she said.
However, Sen cautioned that any supply increase was unlikely in the near term. “Exports have already halved and the blockade and sanctions remain in place, so you’ve a situation where nothing has changed, there is no additional oil.” She added: “In the very short term, the risk is that we lose even more production.”
Separately, The Telegraph reports that Western oil majors could ultimately benefit from Venezuela’s opening up, with Shell potentially earning billions of dollars from gas projects if US sanctions ease. The newspaper said President Donald Trump’s intervention could accelerate the long-delayed Dragon gas field project, which could generate an estimated $500m a year for decades.
Ashley Kelty of Panmure Liberum said: “The big winners are going to be the US majors, Chevron in particular because it is already active in Venezuela.”
He added: “The European majors will get locked out of the best stuff but will get invited in afterwards because American companies will want joint ventures to spread the risk – and companies like Shell and BP will be first choice.”
Despite the longer-term implications, Opec+ signalled no immediate change in strategy. As reported by the FT, key producers agreed to maintain a pause on production increases until at least April, while the Telegraph noted the cartel had also agreed to pause supply increases in the first quarter of 2026 in an effort to support prices.