UK offshore energy industry faces Grangemouth scale redundancies every fortnight without intervention, warns new RGU report

A major new report from Robert Gordon University (RGU) has warned that the UK risks losing tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs by 2030 unless urgent and coordinated action is taken immediately.

Striking the Balance - Building a sustainable UK offshore energy workforce provides critical insights into the future of the UK’s offshore energy sector, offering a refreshed and timely update of RGU’s previous landmark workforce reports. 

It captures the latest industry forecasts and employment data - highlighting the widening gap between policy intent and real-world outcomes. It also considers the evolving strategies of key European nations like Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands, which continue to invest in domestic fossil fuel production, while accelerating low-carbon growth.

With UK offshore energy jobs still firmly in the political and media spotlight, underlined by recently announced redundancies at several operators and supply chain companies, the report outlines three offshore energy workforce scenarios (the low, mid, and high cases) and up to £350 billion of future investment in the UK’s offshore energy sector between 2025 and 2035. Each scenario scrutinises the impact on UK offshore energy job numbers of several factors, including government policies, industry dynamics and investor sentiment. 

The report suggests a 2030 UK offshore energy workforce requirement (oil, gas and renewables) of between 125,000 and 163,000 jobs, compared to today’s figure of approximately 154,000. 

However, the specific UK oil and gas workforce is forecast to fall from 115,000 in 2024 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s. 

In the lower case, the North Sea oil and gas workforce could shrink by approximately 400 jobs – the same number lost as a result of the closure of the Grangemouth refinery – every two weeks for the next five years.

Under a high-case scenario, workforce demand levels across the UK could hit over 210,000, but this will require the delivery of an additional 35 GW (or close to 6 GW per year) of offshore wind and sustaining UK oil and gas activities for an extended period, similar to policies applied in Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.

With nearly 1 in 30 of Scotland’s working population currently employed in or supporting the offshore energy industry, compared to a UK-wide figure of approximately 1 in 220, the potential risks for Scotland’s supply chain and workforce are substantial. 

If Scotland fails to capture the full range of offshore energy opportunities and the oil and gas decline continues to accelerate, the Scottish-based offshore energy workforce could decrease from approximately 75,000 in 2024 to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s.

This newly released report underscores the urgency for action and cross-sector collaboration to protect jobs, sustain the world-class offshore energy supply chain, and accelerate the transition to a greener and cleaner future.

Key findings:

• The overall UK offshore energy workforce between 2023 and 2024 remained broadly flat at 154,000
• The UK oil and gas workforce declined by around 5,000 jobs, from approximately 120,000 in 2023 to around 115,000 in 2024 (± 3% range), while the renewables workforce increased from approximately 34,000 to close to 39,000
• At current investment, commitment, and business delivery projections, the likely 2030 UK offshore energy workforce demand is forecast to be between 125,000 and 163,000
• Depending on which scenario plays out, the UK oil and gas workforce is forecast to fall from 115,000 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s
• The UK offshore renewables workforce is forecast to increase from approximately 39,000 in 2024 to between 84,000 and 153,000 by 2035
• To maintain the UK offshore energy workforce at 2024 level, the UK has to deliver close to 40 GW of installed offshore wind, up to 40% UK content in capital expenditure work, and around 0.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030
• Before 2027, there is likely to be limited capacity for the UK offshore renewables sector to host and accommodate the quantity of oil and gas workers becoming available on the jobs market due to the decline in the oil and gas industry
• The current level of UK content in renewables is typically around 25% for capital activities and up to 85% for operating activities
• Significant levels of new operational capacity and capability will be required to deliver on the ambition of up to 40% UK capex content for new offshore wind projects and up to 50% for oil and gas decommissioning activities by 2030. Much of this new capacity will need to be developed ahead of final investment decisions
• The Scottish-based offshore energy workforce could fall from approximately 75,000 in 2024 to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s
• It may be necessary to sustain selective oil and gas activities until the early 2030s if Scotland is to retain its offshore energy workforce, skills, supply chain, and economic contribution

“The UK’s lack of joined up action means that the window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing,” said Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen.

“With investment at risk and renewables projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders. The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20% to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.

“The analysis shows that there is a workforce ‘goldilocks zone’ between 2025 and 2030 during which the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in, so that the transferability of the offshore energy workforce is optimised. However, key to the effective delivery of the goldilocks zone is rapid investment in UK capabilities to deliver a fast-growing programme of green capital projects, which in turn will help to realise ambitious goals for domestic execution of these projects.” 

Professor de Leeuw added: “The UK possesses all the attributes and resources to realise the ambitions set out in government strategies and forward-looking industry programmes. The report shows that with the right interventions at the right time, the UK can achieve its strategic energy goals and reach its net zero objectives, all while protecting and significantly enhancing workforce numbers in the offshore energy sector. 

“Countries such as Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands are already successfully balancing traditional energy production with rapid expansion of renewables, a model the UK could and should emulate.

“The review recognises the constraints to accelerate the deployment of offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewable energies over the remainder of this decade. However, the analysis highlights that Governments can rapidly put in place policies to better manage the decline in the oil and gas sector, so that offshore energy jobs and the UK’s world-class supply chain can be sustained and retained.”