The war in Ukraine has brought into sharp focus the fragility of global markets, and the fault lines of globalisation.
It has also, for the first time since the 1970s, seen genuine concerns raised about our energy security as a nation.
Our oil and gas production has already more than halved over the past 20 years. The ONS says that production is now 58% lower than its peak in 1999.
In that same period, the amount of energy generated from renewable sources has risen, but at a fraction of the pace, and energy consumption has remained static.
This has left us ever more reliant on energy imports from other parts of the world. We have gone from being a net exporter of energy just 20 years ago, producing around 17% more than we needed, to importing 30% of the energy we use.
In recent years, there have been points where we have fallen back to import dependency levels that we haven’t seen since the 1970s, when North Sea production was in its infancy.
In peaceful and globalised times, we have dropped the ball and allowed ourselves to become increasingly reliant on imports.
Clearly we need to develop, at pace, alternative clean energies. Diversity of supply represents security of supply.
But what about the short-term?
In 2020 the UK obtained 21.5% of its primary energy from low carbon sources.
So yes, we need to ramp up investment in lower carbon technologies. But the energy transition is going to take 25 years and there is quite clearly a sustained period of time, during that transition, where oil and gas will remain a crucial part of our energy mix.
So, for now, we have two options; to produce more domestically, with full control over the regulatory environment in which it is extracted; or to import an increasing amount of our energy, with the heavier carbon toll that shipping it from other parts of the world carries.
The latter makes little economic sense, and even less environmental sense.
Nobody wants to alter the direction of travel, net zero is where we want to get to. But with such a lengthy transition, now is not the time to be ideological, it is time to be practical and realistic.
An opinion poll run in the Times recently showed that 98% of people in the North of Scotland believe that the oil and gas used in the UK should be produced in the UK.
There is an acceptance in the public at large that leaving Scottish oil in the ground while importing it from other parts of the world is environmentally illiterate.
However, this opinion is not shared by Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, who has doubled down on her position that there should be no new exploration in the North Sea.
Her argument was that new oil and gas fields can take years to come on stream. But is this really the case?
There are marginal reservoirs which are part of larger fields which weren’t viable at $40 a barrel, but they certainly are at over $100. Those sorts of incremental reserves, as part of an already developed asset, can be drilled and brought on-stream within six months.
And it doesn’t seem like this Ukraine crisis or its effects will have gone away within six months. Most predict the energy supply crisis will have worsened by then, and costs will have gone up further. Traders are talking about oil at $200 a barrel.
Wholesale subsea developments in the North Sea would take two years to bring to production. Which may well be within the lifespan of the current crisis too.
But again, let’s set that in context overall... the transition is going to take at least 25 years.
So, what should we make of the First Minister’s comments? Her position is largely symbolic, as these matters are reserved to the Westminster parliament.
But we have had conversations with industry figures who are nervous about investing in the waters off Scotland while the first minister holds this view. And that should be something of great concern to the Scottish Government.
She needs to change tact and come work with the industry. We need to play the short game and help unlock the billions of pounds we need for our energy security today. This will allow us to play the long game and secure our energy transition tomorrow.
Ryan Crighton is Policy Director at Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce.