Global logistics specialist Aramex UK has called upon retailers to ensure their festive season strategies are all in place as retail sales forecasts are estimated to surpass last year’s numbers.
This year, the UK is tipped to outperform all other major countries across Europe in retail sales, according to sources.
Overall, UK retail sales only grew by about 0.7% in 2024 compared with 2023, and in the key October-to-December Golden Quarter growth was minimal, sitting at around 0.4% year-on-year
Peak season is worth a significant portion of annual revenue for UK retailers, often accounting for 30-40% of total sales and potentially up to half for some brands.
However, any disruption to supply chains, inventory management, or delivery operations during this period can not only have a disproportionately large impact on profitability but it has the potential to be make or break for many retailers – especially as the overall sales performance for this year could be described as stagnant.
With retailers still grappling with supply chain difficulties and a turbulent economic environment on domestic soil, Aramex UK, one of the globe’s leading international logistics specialists within the retail and ecommerce sector, has highlighted that preparedness is never been more key to ensuring a smooth and profitable festive season.
For traditional retailers, the festive period brings a surge of inbound shipments and the constant pressure to keep shelves fully stocked. The stakes are even higher for online brands as delays in freight or last-mile delivery can result in out-of-stock products and lost sales, particularly as consumers increasingly expect same- or next-day service.
To make the most of it, adopting a proactive approach, leveraging technology to monitor shipments in real time, optimise route planning, and maintain flexibility in both freight and delivery options has never been increasingly stark.
The company will be exhibiting at the Retail and Logistics Supply Chain Expo this week to offer insight and best-practice guidance on meeting evolving consumer expectations during peak this year, while demonstrating how agile and flexible logistics solutions are becoming a fundamental component of a retailer’s supply chain strategy – one that blends both proactive and reactive solutions rather than on static forecasts or rigid planning.
Umar Butt VP - Commercial - Europe & North America at Aramex commented: “Traditionally, retail strategies focus on aligning orders with forecasted demand, but in recent years, things have been very different as planning ahead has been challenging. This year, with forecasts optimistically pointing to stronger growth during the Golden Quarter, the opportunity is certainly there for retailers to capture increased sales and market share, but only for those who plan proactively and remain agile.
“From our perspective the recurring theme moving forward is flexibility in terms of looking at how goods are sourced, imported, stored and distributed. Forecasting still of course forms a crucial component of a retailer’s end‑to‑end retail supply‑chain handbook, but it must now be coupled with scenario‑based contingency planning and multi-layered risk mitigation to ensure continuity of supply and meet consumer demand.
“Supply chains are now a lot more complex, and delays are less of a surprise and more of an expectation. Therefore, pre-booking dual ocean carriers with staggered ETAs to counter port congestion or utilising multimodal solutions such as combining sea and rail are essential strategies and have become standard practice. Consumer expectations are also higher and their buying habits are continually shifting, therefore some retailers have had to consider stretching out their seasonal promotions over a longer period to give consumers more time to shop, which means they have needed to maintain a steady flow of inventory over a longer timeframe, rather than relying on short, intensive bursts of stock movement around key dates. So, on the whole there’s a lot more to consider.
Umar continued: “This is why integrating technology such as real-time tracking systems that allows teams to monitor shipments across every stage of the supply chain, flag potential delays, and activate contingency plans before disruptions impact customers, is worth its weight in gold. A simple solution given such technology has been around for some time now but given the landscape currently, they’ve become vital to keeping the flow of goods moving especially during times where demand is at its peak and delays are common – plus it ensures that retailers can maintain service levels and keep customers satisfied.”
According to Umar Butt, a recurring trend last year was that, faced with cost pressures and ongoing uncertainty around lead times, many retailers resorted to reactive inventory strategies, resulting in either excess stock sitting idle in warehouses or shortages of key products on shelves.
As a result, many found themselves failing to meet demand during a crucial period or found themselves holding large volumes of unsold inventory, meaning their storage and handling costs increased and they were left exposed to markdowns or write‑downs as goods eventually became obsolete or unsellable.
Umar continued: “We’re still seeing brands leaving their peak planning until the last minute, hoping capacity will be there or that demand will balance out. This of course comes at a risk as freight space tightens around October time, and the best slots disappear months earlier. Cargo space too will become very limited, and naturally in line with supply and demand will increase exponentially in terms of cost.
“Equally, due to the sheer influx of volumes arriving into ports or airports, congestion builds quickly. One late container can mean the difference between sales being made or empty shelves and/or stock for Black Friday and the pre-Christmas rush.
“That’s of course not to say nothing can be done as there are there are practical steps retailers can take to mitigate this if they work closely with their logistics provider to see what can be done relative to their requirements. For instance, even at this stage, prioritising critical shipments through pre-booked express lanes or premium air-freight options can help secure space before final cut-offs. But needless to say, the window to do so is rapidly closing and retailers must act immediately to ensure products arrive on time.”