An MRP “mega-poll” suggests a collapse in Labour support could hand the SNP a Holyrood majority — and a renewed push for a second independence referendum.
The seat-by-seat analysis by Stonehaven - published in The Times today - predicts the Scottish National Party will win 67 of 73 constituency seats, securing an outright majority on constituencies alone.
The SNP has said such a result would represent a mandate for a second vote on independence.
The model indicates tactical voting will be decisive, with some Labour voters prepared to back the SNP to block Reform UK. It suggests the SNP would sweep all but six first-past-the-post seats, while Reform would fail to win any constituencies but return 25 regional MSPs.
Scottish Labour is forecast to win just 15 seats overall — its worst result since devolution — with the Lib Dems on eight, and the Conservatives and Greens tied on seven each.
The poll also projects the SNP winning all of the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire constituency seats, with Reform finishing second in each.
Luke Betham, head of data science at Stonehaven, said: “Tactical voting is likely to play a significant role this May, with a handful of closely fought constituency contests set to decide whether or not the SNP secures an overall majority for the first time since 2011.”