A major new poll for True North Advisors has shown Nigel Farage is on course to become the next Prime Minister, with support for his Reform UK party soaring to 30%.
The UK-wide Survation poll of more than 2,000 people showed Labour trailing on 25%, while the Conservatives are on 18%, the Liberal Democrats are backed by 13%, and the Green Party is on 7%.
The research was conducted between May 2nd and May 5th in the immediate aftermath of Reform UK’s victory by six votes in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, alongside huge gains for the party in other local contests across England.
Compared to Survation’s last UK-wide poll a few days earlier, between April 30th and May 2nd, Reform is up by almost 4 percentage points (pp), while the Tories have fallen by 4pp. Labour is down by 1pp and the Lib Dems have increased by more than 1pp.
Projecting these latest poll figures, Reform UK would end up with 334 seats in the Commons, a majority of 18, if it was translated into an election result.
Labour would be on 180, followed by the Lib Dems on 58, the SNP with 27 and the Tories in fifth with just 23 MPs.
It comes after a Survation poll for True North last week showed Reform UK is poised to overtake Labour in Scotland, commanding 19% of the constituency vote and 20% on the regional list at Holyrood.
Calum Ross, senior advisor at True North said: “This latest Westminster poll underlines the scale of the political earthquake that is shaking UK politics, with Nigel Farage now a serious contender to become the next Prime Minister.
“The shockwaves from this ongoing surge in support for Reform UK will be far-reaching, not least for the Conservative Party, which is facing an existential crisis.
“The only saving grace for Mr Farage’s opponents is that the next election is likely to be several years away. However, unless something changes, the rise and rise of Reform looks set to shape the debate every day until then.”
The survey of 2,032 UK residents aged 18 or over was conducted via online panel.