The North-east and the North Sea can become an energy “powerhouse to keep the UK going”, according to the head of RGU’s Energy Transition Institute.
Professor Paul de Leeuw laid bare the rewards, for the region and the whole country, of an organised and smooth transition towards renewables – but also set out the consequences of failing to seize the opportunity on offer.
Robert Gordon University published a report in early June warning the UK’s offshore energy industry could face job losses on the scale of Grangemouth every fortnight without intervention.
But the report, which it is hoped will help shape government policy, also outlines what needs to be done to capitalise on the transition.
Prof de Leeuw said: “The report is called Striking the Balance, and it really is about balancing future oppoertunities. It outlines that if you get it right, if you do a proper energy transition and you really follow the industrial strategy, we up with 40% more jobs in the industry.
“Unfortunately, that’s not what we’re doing yet. And the report also outlines that if we don’t get there, we end up with fewer jobs than we have now.
“If we see oil and gas decline, we don’t pursue the industrial strategy, we don’t get clean power by 2030, and we see activity disappear, we can literally see the oil and gas industry workforce declining to the tune of a Grangemouth equivalent every two weeks for the next five years.
“The report is describing this as an opportunity for the UK, for Scotland for the North-east of Scotland – but there’s a consequence of not doing it.”
Prof de Leeuw said the report made the case and set out the opportunities available, but that it was now up to the government to take the report’s recommendations on board after the summer recess and in the autumn budget.
He said the autumn budget would be critical in which outcome in the report becomes reality, adding: “Is it plus 40% workforce increase or is it minus 20%?”
‘It is critical that we use the ecosystem we have’
He also emphasised the strength of the North-east’s hand in relation to energy projects, saying: “If you look at the North-east of Scotland, it’s the best starting point you can have.
“The North-east has the full ecosystem, operators, developers, supply chain companies, all the service companies, education institutions – everything is here.
“If you want a place to start the new energy future from, the North Sea and particularly the North-east of Scotland is brilliant.
“However, we need to be very mindful that we also need investment for activity to happen.
“If you look at the new wind developments, new carbon capture and storage, and new hydrogen activities, most of that is happening in other parts of the UK.
“Around 80% (by gigawatts) of future offshore wind activities for the remainder of this decade are currently planned to be outside Scotland.”
‘There is a massive prize for getting this right’
Prof de Leeuw was part of the North Sea Transition Taskforce, something he described as a “unique experience”.
He said: “The taskforce was only in existence for a short period. The report came out at the end of March, but the key findings were impactful.
“The combination of the taskforce report, other industry reports, and the government’s consultations provides an unique opportunity to shape a better, more investable, and more coordinated future for the North Sea.
“I look forward to seeing what comes out after the summer recess and the government hopefully makes announcements later this year.
“There is a massive prize for getting this right.
“You can potentially get more investment coming in and up to 40% more jobs across the UK, sustain the ecosystem, have oil and gas bridge the energy demand gap until the renewables agenda comes on, particularly in the 2030s.”
Prof de Leeuw said a “rapid acceleration” of wind energy policy and projects is required to ensure the government’s clean power strategy can be delivered.
‘The faster we can deliver that future the better’
He said: “That’s a good outcome for the supply chain, a good outcome for the workforce, and a good outcome for the country because it will get to net zero faster.
“That is the winning outcome.
“If that happens, I think we can see a new energy powerhouse in the North Sea.
“The challenge is that we’re not heading in that direction yet.
“A big correction is required - particularly in terms of policy, confidence and getting the investors back on track.
“How do we turn this opportunity into reality? I think the taskforce is saying get a real direction from government, sustain the supply chain, bridge the gap by keeping activity going, get investor confidence back again, drive the extraordinary supply chain capability we’ve built over the last 50 years and use it to accelerate the renewables agenda.
“That, for me, is where the big opportunity sits. Unfortunately, we’re not there yet.
“We have the opportunity to turn the North Sea into a multi-energy powerhouse, supported by a world-class energy workforce and supply chain.
“We’ll still have oil and gas, we’re going to have a huge amount of wind generation, we have carbon and storage, we have hydrogen, all co-existing.
“The faster we can deliver that future, the better it is for the environment, the supply chain, the workforce, and the region.
“It’s a winning outcome for everyone; we just need to make sure we deliver it.”