Prime Minister Boris Johnson's allies have warned that there could be an early general election as they attempt to convince wavering Tory MPs not to submit letters of no confidence.
He might face a confidence vote as early as today, with MPs returning to Parliament after a recess.
The Telegraph reports that, in recent weeks, the Prime Minister's advisers have let it be known that an election next year - or even sooner - is a possibility as he mulls his political future.
The message is seen by some Tory insiders as a coded warning that those who turn against Mr Johnson may lose his support when they seek re-selection by local parties.
David Canzini, a senior political adviser in Downing Street, last month told around 80 Tory MPs facing tight re-election battles to be ready for a poll as early as the autumn.
But whether Mr Johnson would call a snap election as the cost-of-living crisis bites and with a sizeable polling deficit to Labour - when he could wait until 2024 - remains unclear.
Some Tory rebels are using the prospect of an election sooner than expected to convince waverers the other way, pointing to Mr Johnson's poor poll ratings.
A one-page briefing note being pushed by some Tory MP critics over the weekend declares that Mr Johnson is "no longer an electoral asset".
Its 14 bullet points include reference to an opinion poll that found a quarter of Conservative voters wanted Mr Johnson to resign and a claim that partygate is "not going away".
Mr Johnson's electability was a key factor in why Tory MPs turned to him in the summer of 2019 in the aftermath of Theresa May's resignation.
But he is now the Cabinet minister with the lowest approval rating, according to members of his own party, and the Tories have trailed Labour for more than half a year, meaning his ability to win the next election has become a talking point.
Downing Street figures and Tory rebels believe the number of no-confidence letters submitted to the 1922 committee could be close to, or even above, the 54 needed to automatically trigger the vote, though they also admit to being in the dark.
The Telegraph says only Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the committee, knows the tally for sure. If the threshold had been met but he was waiting for the Jubilee celebrations to be over before announcing it, today would be the earliest point for him to do so.
An opinion poll published over the weekend showed the Tories could lose the Wakefield by-election by 20 points, having won the seat in December 2019.
Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, on Sunday predicted that there would not be a confidence vote this week and downplayed the significance of negative polling.
He told the BBC: "In the round, when people judge Government by the general election rather than mid-term, where it's not unusual to see polling like this, actually people make a decision about whether you've delivered and done a good for the country as a whole."