July currency review

It seems like an eternity since discussion of the Euro did not revolve around Greece but that is almost the case as we draw into August.

The "almost" is because Greece has indeed featured in the news and does warrant mention.

However, that news is, by and large, positive.

Although the good people of Greece might not relish the austerity that will be heaped upon them as a condition of a fresh bailout, investors are relieved that they can - at least for a while - think about something else.
Investors have been impressed by the determination with which the Greek prime minister has marshaled his troops to push through parliament reforms that are deeply unpalatable to many in his own party.

Mr Tsipras still has many hurdles to clear before the bailout money starts to flow again and there will probably be another general election before the end of the year.

Nevertheless, because things are moving in the right direction for now, investors are inclined to take a more benevolent view of the euro.
It was the top-performing major currency during the week commencing July 20, unhampered by any significant economic statistics.

The euro added three quarters of a US cent and strengthened by two cents against sterling.

Its future performance will depend on Greece maintaining its refreshingly low profile in the weeks and months to come.
Not much help was to be had from the euro zone economic statistics.

Investors had to make what they could of such minutiae as Euro land construction output, and the official EC measure of consumer confidence.

So no inspiration was to be found among the data: it was the more benign - or at least less malign - attitude of investors that took the euro higher.
They were upset, though, by the UK retail sales figures for June, which unexpectedly showed sales falling on the month.

The news undid all of the good work done by the MPC minutes, and then some.
The longer Greece stays out of the headlines, the better-disposed investors are likely to be towards the euro.

Although there are many hurdles yet to be cleared by Mr Tsipras and his reluctant grand coalition before the bailout cash starts to flow, investors will be over-eager to fret about tomorrow's problems today.
The single European currency was not the leader over the last 24 hours though it did well during the London session on July 27.

All three of the IFO measures of German business confidence surprised investors by coming in ahead of forecast and better than the previous month.

However, while the figures were positive for the euro, it had already strengthened by a cent in the hour prior to their publication.
A suspicious person might wonder if the IFO data had somehow been leaked, especially as the euro's upward move peaked immediately the official announcement was made.

Even so, the euro managed to take a net half-cent off sterling and it added three quarters of a US cent.

For a change, the Swiss franc was the laggard, losing half a cent to the pound.

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